NFL Odds Week 4: Line Movement Picks & Predictions

Join us as we follow all of the NFL Week 4 odds, predict their movement, and tell you when and where to place your NFL picks. Where is their value to be found, or are you too late to the party? Find out who we are jumping on.

Click here to follow live NFL odds for all of Week 4's games.

It’s Saturday, and we are less than 24 hours away from Week 4 kickoff. Lines have been shuffling and moving more this week than in any of the past three weeks. Some of it may have to do with the real referees being back, so with that in mind, let’s take one last look at the NFL odds for this week, and see if we can still sniff out some value. 

St. Louis looks to be settling down to a +3 home underdog against the Seahawks. This is actually my upset watch of the weekend as I could see the Rams winning outright this week. Taking a shot at them on the money line might be a good bet. 

The Vikings and Lions’ line has settled down to -4. It took forever to even see these games on the boards, but it was because Matt Stafford was questionable earlier in the week. This too might be an upset game to watch. However, I’m not sure to how well the Vikings will play on the road, but teasing them and the Rams up would be a nice bet. 

The books are playing a lot of you reading this right now as the Patriots’ line has now dropped down to -3 ½ road favorites. Buffalo beat them last season in this game, but this season, I would stay as far away from this spread as you can! This game screams trap. 

Denver has moved up to a -7 favorite against the Raiders, and at this point, the value has been bet out of the Broncos. However, going the other way might be the sharp pick right now. At the very least, teasing the Raiders up looks like a nice bet. 

Check out our pick on Raiders vs. Broncos here

We start in St. Louis, were the Rams welcome in the Seahawks for an NFC West showdown. The line opened for the Seahawks at -1, but has already moved to -2 1/2 and -3. While the Seahawks have the unwarranted momentum, the Rams are not that bad, so don't be surprised if you see some heavy action on the Rams between now and Sunday.

Find out who we are picking in the Seahawks & Rams game.

We are FINALLY starting to see some more lines in the Lions and Vikings game. After an injury to Matt Stafford last week, Jim Schwartz and his merry band of followers have been very mum about his Week 4 status. However, news looks like he'll be just fine. The line seems to be settling around -5 in favor of the Lions in Detroit.

Which side should you be on in this game?

Our big mover of the week goes to the Buffalo Bills hosting the Patriots. The spread opened in favor of the Pats at -7 road favorites, and now has plummeted to -4. This is very suspicious since the public is heavy on the Patriots. Somebody forced that line down, and I doubt they were on the Patriots.

Read our Free NFL picks for the Partiots vs. Bills matchup.

Once again it seems as if the books made a rare mistake judging the Bengals, as they opened as a pick em in Jacksonville. I know I've been drilling that home underdogs have been cashing at an extreme rate, but the real refs are back, and I think that trend will even up shortly. Now the Bengals are -3 in some instances, and I know I can't see them losing against the Jags. However, that may be exactly what the books want you and I to think.

Free NFL picks for the matchup between the Bengals and the Jaguars.

The big battle between the angry Packers and the pissed off Saints is the game of the week in the NFL. Green Bay opened at a -9 favorite, and while a few other shops have he line at -7 1/2 or -8, it seems the Packers will end up at least a touchdown favorite. I wouldn't touch this spread with a 10-foot pole, but the total might be an interesting proposition.

Are we picking the Saints or Packers to bounce back this week?

Tis a morning to rejoice as NFL fans, as the referee lockout is finally over thanks to a tentative agreement met late last night. The newly signed and paid refs will be thrown right into the fire, as they are set to officiate tonight’s Thursday battle between the Browns and Ravens. Now that the real refs are back, will they affect the NFL odds?

The public is betting on the Browns tonight, as 55% of the bets coming in on tonight’s game are on the Browns. The line rose slightly over the week, but after opening at -12 Ravens, it is back down to where it opened. I don’t expect much more movement until game time, but there could be a stream of money that comes in on Baltimore right before game time.

Read out pick on the spread in the Browns & Ravens game.

The New England and Buffalo line is still the biggest move of the week. The Pats opened as -7 road favorites, but of course, the replacement refs have been handing home underdogs wins, so the line plummeted to -4. However, now that the real refs are back, this line might go up. We all know how much they love giving calls to Tom Brady.

After opening at -9, the line between the Falcons and Panthers is starting to settle. It is now sitting at -7 Falcons at home, and I expect it to stay there.

Find out why Joe Freda likes the Panthers to cover.

Cincinnati opened as a pick em in Jacksonville, but heavy betting on the Bengals has forced them to anywhere from -1 to a -3 favorite on the road. They shouldn’t have been underdogs last week against Washington, and they should have opened as favorites this week. Hopefully, you guys got in early on the Bengals last week and this week. 

Wednesday is the last day before the official start to the Week 4 NFL schedule, and even though we have some bye weeks starting this week, there are still 15 games on tap for this weekend. Let’s take a look at the lines from this morning, and see if there has been any more movement and if there is any more or less value to be had.

The NFL odds for tomorrow night’s game have move backed down to the opening number. After opening as a -12 favorite, the Ravens quickly moved up to -13, but now have found themselves back down at -12, and even lower at some shops. Cleveland is not a bad team, but they are a young and inexperienced, and they have to go on the road against a tough defense on a short week.

Read our early picks for the Browns & Ravens Thursday night battle.

As we expected, thanks to their controversial win over the Packers, the Seahawks’ line has been soring. After opening as -1 road favorites, the Seahawks are now listed at -3 and rising. Hopefully you got in early on this line. However, there might be some value in the Rams. Home underdogs are 13-5-1 ATS so far this season. 

The biggest mover award for the week is already looking to be the Patriots and Bills. After opening in favor of the Pats at -7 on the road, the number has been bet down all the way to -4 Patriots.

The line between divisional rivals, the Falcons and Panthers continues to drop, despite the Panthers looking awful against the Giants last week. After opening in favor of the Falcons at -9, the line is already down to -7. The public is on the Panthers.

A number to keep your eye on is the Packers and Saints. New Orleans is on the road, and opened as +9 underdogs. However, you can find the number anywhere from -9 to -7 in favor of the Packers. If the Saints figure things out, that number could have value.

Well, after a crazy week of football, which was capped off with possibly the two worst calls of the season by the wonderful replacement refs, we have reached Week 4. A few teams are starting to have their bye week, but we still have 15 games starting on Thursday. NFL Odds are out and already moving, so let’s take a look at some of the early movers.

Thursday Night Football will feature the Ravens hosting the Browns, and after winning against New England, they are heavy favorites against Cleveland. Baltimore opened up as a -12 favorite, and as I suspected, the line is already shooting upward. The Ravens are -13, and even -14 in some cases.

A line that catches my eye here early in the week is the Lions hosting the Vikings. Only one book has the line, and the Lions are favored by -4 ½, even after getting dominated on defense against the Titans. Minnesota on the other hand had an amazing win over the 49ers. We will keep an eye on that spread over the next few days, before we decide what to do.

The torn ACL of Darrelle Revis is starting to influence the Jets’ line against the 49ers this week. San Francisco opened as a -3 ½ road favorite, and have already moved to -4 ½. I expect it to continue to move throughout the week.

Another line I expect to shoot up is the Bengals on the road against the Jaguars. Even though road teams haven’t been that solid this season, the Bengals are already moving up from a pick em, and now are favored by -1. I think this line will move upward some more, so get in quick if you like the Bengals.

We saw plenty of big games over Week 3 of the NFL and unfortunately, we had more controversy and big, illegal hits that weren’t called. I’m wondering how much the replacement refs are affecting the NFL Odds.

Week 4’s lines are starting to come out and there are a bunch of good teams going on the road this week. Let’s take a look at some of the opening numbers, and see what kind of value is emerging early in the week.

The Browns and Ravens hook up on the short week for Thursday Night Football, and while the Browns have been playing better, they are still +12 underdogs on the road. The no huddle of Baltimore, along with their outstanding defense is the reason behind this. I would expect to see that line go up some before Thursday evening.

San Diego and Kansas City opened up as a pick em, but since then, late night action on the Chargers has forced the lines into favoring San Diego. This is another line you can expect to go up. The Chiefs are not that great, and I think the Chargers are finally starting to click. I expect to see that line around -3 Chargers by Sunday.

New England will be looking to even up their record this weekend, as they take the trip over to Buffalo. The Pats have opened as -3 ½ favorites, and I can’t see it moving a whole lot. Home underdogs have been cashing in great numbers this season, and playing in Buffalo is no joke.

Another -3 ½ road favorites are the 49ers on the road against the Jets. New York did just lose Darrelle Revis for the season with a torn ACL, so that will help the Niners out a lot. However, San Francisco looked bad against the Vikings on the road this past week, so don’t go jumping all over the Niners just yet. They did just lose to the Vikings.

Houston is a big home favorite against the Titans this week, despite the Titans upsetting the Lions. I guess the Lions upset themselves, but trust me, I don’t mind seeing that. Houston is a -12 favorite against Tennessee.

Carolina is in Atlanta this weekend, and the Falcons are favored anywhere from -7 to -9. That line interests me, but not enough to bet it this early in the week. Wait and see where it settles over the next few days. However, if you have a number in mind, go for it.

The Broncos will try and get back on track against the Raiders this weekend. Denver is a -6 favorite, even after their loss and the Raiders win over the Steelers. 

The Redskins and Robert Griffin III head into Tampa Bay this weekend, and the Skins are +3 underdogs. This is a winnable matchup for Washington, however, the Bucs have shown that they back down for no one, including the highly touted #2 overall pick.

Finally, the Sunday night game will be a NFC East showdown between the Giants and Eagles. Philadelphia is a -1 favorite, and I expect the public to bet the Giants, and then the sharps to turn around and select the Giants in their picks for this one.