Having already produced a pick on the total, I'm back with a spread pick on the MNF matchup between the visiting Denver Broncos and AFC-leading San Diego Chargers. Let's take advantage of a line that's been demonstrating a great deal of movement.

Big Mover 

Denver BroncosBetween Friday night and Saturday morning, some huge money apparently came in on the Broncos to win this game. After opening at -2 ½ in favor of the Chargers earlier in the week, the line slowly dropped to -1 Chargers by Friday. However, by Saturday morning, a huge shift on this one had rolled in.

It started with just a few books placing the game as a pick em by late last night. However, around 10 AM EST, another apparent huge block of cash came in on the Broncos. Now, one is hard pressed to find the Chargers as betting favorites or, more likely, the Broncos as underdogs. 

Most NFL odds currently have the game as a pick 'em with the juice on the Broncos, or they have Denver as a -1 favorite. This game has now seen more movement in the odds than any other game this week. 

This makes handicapping it a little more difficult. With line movement like this, it means the sharps have a play in mind or that there was a major injury or setback to the Chargers that just came out. 

I’ve been monitoring news wires, but it doesn’t seem there was any ground breaking news that warrants such a big shift in the odds. My initial reaction is to follow the sharps, but we don’t need to lose value. However, if you feel as if the play is the Broncos, I suggest you lay it now. 

The Sharp Pick 

But folks, this is my pick, and I do indeed have a play in mind, and it might just coincide with the sharps’ big movement on the Broncos. What’s ironic about this big shift is that the Chargers have owned the Broncos of late. However, this is a new season, and it changes even more with Peyton Manning as the starter for Denver. 

For the sake of arguing, I will note that the Broncos are only 3-7 SU in their last ten games against the Chargers, and San Diego is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Broncos. 

The Broncos did win and cover in their last game against the Chargers, winning 16-13. That’s a Tim Tebow score if I’ve ever seen one, and his time in Denver is long since over. 

For this game, I like Manning and the Broncos. The trends are thrown out so far, and even though the Chargers have been really good on defense this season, I think Manning and the Broncos are going to click big time for this game. It’s in warm weather, on a big stage, and you’ll see the best of Manning so far this season. I like the Broncos to get the win

My Pick: Broncos -110