The Atlanta Falcons have clinched a wild-card berth to the postseason, while cashing with a 2-1 spread mark in their last three games. This week they matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have been on a 0-5 ATS slide since last month.
Sportsbooks had opened their NFL odds with Atlanta as the 13 ½-point home favorite, while
first setting the ‘total’ at 47. Early NFL betting on Tampa Bay and the
‘under’ drove the numbers south to 12 and 46 ½ at several shops.
Join me as I break down both of these teams and decide where to make my NFL picks in this matchup.
Falcons crushed in New Orleans
Atlanta saw a two-game winning streak end in Monday’s 45-16 defeat
as a 6 ½-point road dog against the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons were
denied touchdowns in all three of their red-zone journeys, while allowing New
Orleans to reach the end zone in 4-of-6 trips inside the 20-yard line.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan notched 373 yards through the air,
connecting on 34-of-52 passes. The 26-year-old tossed one touchdown to
wide out Julio Jones, who edged out mate Roddy White in receiving yards,
128-127.
The Falcons’ defense allowed 463 total yards, with 164 coming on
the ground. Cornerbacks Dunta Robinson and Dominique Franks grabbed one
interception each, while tackle Vance Walker logged his squad’s sole sack.
The contest’s combined 61 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 52,
lifting the ‘over’ to 3-0 in the Falcons’ last trio of games. Atlanta’s
offense failed to give up a sack in its 33 minutes of possession, while Falcons
placekicker Matt Bryant hit 3-of-3 field goals.
Bucs blown away again
Tampa Bay suffered its ninth straight defeat in last Saturday’s
48-16 loss as a nine-point road dog against the Carolina Panthers. The
Bucs recorded four turnovers, while opening the second half allowing a stretch
of 28 unanswered points.
Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman completed 28-of-38 passing attempts,
guiding his squad to a pair of touchdowns in its two red-zone trips. The
Kansas City native found wide out Arrelious Benn from four yards out for one
score, while taking in another himself with a one-yard keeper.
Tampa Bay’s defense held Carolina’s Cam Newton to 171 passing
yards, while giving up a sizable 270 yards on the ground. Newton
penetrated the Bucs for three touchdowns through the air, while he and mate
DeAngelo Williams united for three rushing scores.
The lopsided affair’s combined 64 points soared ‘over’ the ‘total’
of 47 ½ by the third quarter, bringing the ‘over’ to 5-2 in Tampa Bay’s last
seven games. Freeman and Co. moved the chains for 22 first downs,
controlling the ball for 33 minutes of possession.
Back the ‘over’ in the Georgia Dome
Atlanta will be scoreboard watching in its quest for the National
Football Conference’s No. 5 seed, needing to combine its potential win with a
loss from the Detroit Lions in their duel against the Green Bay Packers. Both battles are scheduled for a 1 p.m. (ET) kickoff.
I am backing the ‘over' with my NFL Pick, with the Falcons looking
to put the game away early and the Bucs possibly left in a spot to notch some
back-door points. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the last three meetings between
these NFC South Division rivals, including a 27-21 win for the Falcons in last
November’s most recent matchup hosted by them.
Atlanta has quietly ranked as one of the league’s top 10 clubs on
offense, notching 373.2 YPG, which includes a seventh-best 267.7 YPG of
passing. Ryan and Co. have put up a sizable 28.4 PPG in their last five
home dates.
Tampa Bay has mailed it in this year, giving up a league-worst
29.9 PPG. Raheem Morris’ crew has allowed 392.2 YPG, including 149.7 YPG
on the ground. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the Bucs’ last five games that
followed a spot of surrendering 150 or more rushing yards.
Falcons running back Michael Turner has been held to 56 YPG out of
the backfield in his last five weeks of action, but could finally break out
here before the playoffs. Turner will look to avenge for a season-low 20
yards on 11 carries in Week 3 at Tampa Bay, gearing for a performance more like
last year’s 107 yards and two touchdowns in Atlanta against the Bucs.
The
‘over’ is 6-2-1 in the Falcons’ last nine games that followed a defeat, with a
spot to run up points looming here after Monday’s blowout. Atlanta’s
defense may also let up for some rest if scoreboard watching can cease in the
second half, opening up chances for Tampa Bay to end its season on a high note
with some ‘garbage time’ scoring.