It sure wasn't pretty, but Rex Ryan will take it. The New
York Jets halted a 3-game losing skid with a 24-6 win over the lowly Miami
Dolphins Monday night, and now have a short week to get ready for their next
opponent.
Coming into MetLife Stadium this Sunday afternoon (1:00 PM
ET) are the San Diego Chargers, a huge step up in competition from the
Dolphins.
The odds have swung on both sides of a pick 'em in early betting
action. Bookmaker started its number
at New York -1.5 before moving to San Diego -2 by Tuesday
afternoon. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas saw the same spread
adjustment, from the Jets by 1.5 to the Chargers by 2. The total also shifted down from a 45.5
opening to 43.5.
A big challenge for Ryan and New York
(3-3) will be getting the offense going after another stale performance in the Miami game. The Jets didn't record their initial first
down until past the midway point of the second quarter, finishing the game with
under 300 yards of total offense for the third consecutive week and fourth time
this season.
A lot of fingers are being pointed at Mark Sanchez, and the
third-year quarterback out of USC deserves some of the blame. Sanchez ranks 20th among NFL passers with an
82.3 rating, but that's actually better than his mark each of the past two
seasons.
The real culprit has been the running game, New York rank next-to-last in
the NFL gaining just over 80 yards per game.
Shonn Greene has done a little better job toting the rock the past two
weeks, combining for 157 yards against the Patriots and Dolphins, and he could
be in for better numbers this Sunday against a San Diego run defense that has been a bit
pedestrian.
To really open up the ground attack, Sanchez is going to
have to be successful through the air; he doesn't have to come up huge with
some 300-yard afternoon, but Sanchez does need to make the tosses count. A key matchup will be Plaxico Burress against
Charger corners Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason.
San Diego
does rank second in fewest passing yards allowed, but that number needs deeper
investigation, starting with that pitiful showing by Donovan McNabb and the
Vikings in the season opener (28 yards passing). The Bolts' pass rush is weak (8 sacks), and
Tom Brady had a field day against this secondary with over 400 yards through
the air.
Of course, defense is not now, nor has it ever been, Norv
Turner's strong suit in San Diego
(4-1). The Chargers are one of seven
teams entering Week 7 averaging more than 400 yards of offense each tilt, their
416.2 YPG stat sitting sixth. The
problem is that hasn't really translated into a ton of points; San Diego's 24.0 PPG is 13th in the NFL.
Philip Rivers and Company are coming out of a bye week that came
at a great time, but even with the extra time off, Rivers' complements are
still banged up a bit.
Tight end Antonio Gates remains questionable with his foot
injury, but the backfield tandem of Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert has been
upgraded to probable. In addition to
their importance to the Chargers ground game, Mathews and Tolbert have also
been consistent targets for Rivers catching passes out of the backfield. The tandem accounts for well over a third of
the team's receptions, and almost a third of the yardage gained via the pass.
Mathews and Tolbert will also need to try and take advantage
of what has been the weak link on the Jets' defense, stopping the run.
The biggest medical news to report out of New
York is cornerback Antonio Cromartie who injured his groin Monday
against Miami. He's probable for Sunday's game.
Taking a Chance: One win
doesn't mean the Jets are back on the path to the Super Bowl, as their head
coach predicted before the season started.
But in this case, I have to like New
York and the points.
Jets +1.5, and the OVER 43.5 are my NFL picks.