NFL picks for Friday's preseason games

Friday night features a couple of teams that have been all-star fade material up until this point and sportsbook odds makers are still struggling to find the proper number. Let’s take a look at the “all-trend” Friday games.

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts: GB -9

The sportsbooks could probably ask us to lay 20 points and I would still roll with the Packers in this game. If Peyton Manning was playing, I would likely take a pass and watch as a fan, but with him on the sidelines until the regular season facing the Colts has been the biggest no-brainer of the preseason. 

I'm not sure how much analysis is required here because even after Indianapolis got severely outplayed against Washington, team GM Chris Polian said, "If they start giving out trophies and people's jobs depend on preseason we'd have to re-evaluate our approach at that point. But it doesn't count." 

Jim Caldwell may try to save face and act upset, but in reality this organization could care less what the final score is. Caldwell is 0-2 in week 3 games, 2-4 ATS at home, 1-9 straight up, and 2-7 as an underdog. When given the opportunity to play for pride and rebound at home against the Redskins, they got outscored 415-150 in total yardage, 215-55 in rushing, 22-8 in 1st downs, and 36:29-23:31 in time of possession.

Could the Colts come out with more effort in week 3? Possibly, but it's very unlikely it will be enough to cover the spread. Even the signing of Kerry Collins won’t help them this week.

Things couldn't be more different for Green Bay. The team doesn't have a lot of free agents or young guys to acclimate into the system, but they continue to go out and put up points on the board. The Packers are one of those teams in the preseason that brought roster stability and continuity into 2011 and it shows on the field.

The O-line will focus on keeping Rodgers upright on Friday, but outside of that its business as usual. The trio of Rodgers, Flynn, and Harrell has been outstanding as the three have combined for 619 yards and 5 TDs. Ryan Grant is also running strong coming off his season-ending knee injury.

NFL Handicapper Bob Harvey has also called to back the Packers, and to expect a very one sided game. Look for Dom Capers to give Painter and Orlosky all they can handle as GB cruise to another win.

Prediction: Bank GB -9.

St Louis Rams vs Kansas City Chiefs: STL -2.5

This game opened at a pick em, but it's quickly been bet up to -2.5. I would try to grab anything less than -3.

There's a good reason why St. Louis is seeing the early money. They are 4-0 ATS on the road under Spagnuolo, 2-0 in week 3, and 8-2 straight up. Yes the offense was less than perfect against Tennessee and Steven Jackson had very few holes to run through, but coach Spags said the offense "relaxed a bit" after their 83 yard touchdown to open the game. The Titans gashed them for big runs in the cut-back lanes, but they've made it a priority to improve their tackling and maintain their gap integrity for Friday's regular season tune-up.

The Rams have pumped in crowd noise during practice to prepare for the noise at Arrowhead. This should give you an idea at how coach Spags is approaching this game. Bradford also expects to play three full quarters. St Louis is still a team on the rise with a quarterback excited to take this team to the next level. This organization doesn’t have the same kind of red flags to worry about such as teams like Oakland, Cincinnati, and Buffalo.

The chance to improve for the Rams couldn't have come at a better time. Under Haley, Kansas City is 1-9 straight up, 0-2 in week 3, 0-4-1 ATS at home, and 0-7 as an underdog. Give them credit for improving their compete level against Baltimore, but the backups are so far behind the 8-ball that it wasn't really a contest by the time the 4th quarter rolled around. Tyler Palko played better, but he's still Tyler Palko.

The starting units couldn’t muster much against a struggling Ravens crew. The execution is just not there yet and Haley will be the first to admit it. The defense continues to be two steps behind the offense in practice, and Haley is still preaching fundamentals and getting ready for week 1 of the season. If Kansas City wasn't playing an up and coming team I might have reason to pause, but there is nothing to indicate the result will be any different for a 3rd consecutive week. Fade the Chiefs until further notice.

Prediction: Bank STL -2.5.