NFL Picks: Jaguars vs. Titans in Week 16

 

 

Sportsbooks opened Tennessee as a 7 ½-point home favorite, while first listing the ‘total’ at 39. Early NFL betting action on the Titans and ‘over’ raised the NFL odds to nine and 40, respectively. 

Titans shocked by winless Colts 

Tennessee logged its second straight defeat in Sunday’s 27-13 loss as a 6 ½-point road favorite against the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans gave up a stretch of 17 unanswered points in final two quarters, blowing a 6-3 halftime lead. 

Titans quarterback Matt Hasselbeck threw for 223 yards, while tossing two interceptions. The veteran connected nine passes to wide out Jared Cook, who finished with a team-high 103 receiving yards. 

The Titan’s defense held Indianapolis to 287 total yards, with 161 coming from Colts running back Donald Brown. Defensive end Dave Ball equaled his season-high of five tackles, while he and his mates allowed 3-of-12 third down conversions. 

The contest’s combined 40 points ducked below the closing ‘total’ of 41 ½. Titans placekicker Rob Bironas hit 2-of-2 field goals, including one strike from 53 yards out. 

Jags crushed in Atlanta

Jacksonville saw an early hole widen in last Thursday’s 41-14 setback as a 13 ½-point road dog against the Atlanta Falcons. The Jaguars gave up all 41 of Atlanta’s points over the first three quarters, while allowing Matt Ryan and Co. to control the ball for 39 minutes of possession. 

Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew logged 17 carries for 112 rushing yards. The two-time Pro Bowl selection helped his offense move the chains for 12 first downs, while quarterback Blaine Gabbert recorded three turnovers. 

Jacksonville’s defense gave up two touchdowns in Atlanta’s five red zone trips, while allowing 373 total yards. Defensive end Jeremy Mincey notched his squad’s sole sack, while finishing with a team-high seven tackles. 

The lopsided affair’s combined 55 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 41 ½, lifting the ‘over’ to 3-0 in the Jaguars’ last three games. Jacksonville converted 3-of-10 third downs, while being flagged for five penalties. 

Back the ‘under’ between these foes 

Saturday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. (ET). The early weather forecast in Nashville calls for high of 52 degrees, with a 30 percent chance of showers. 

I am backing the 'Under' with my NFL Pick, looking for another low-octane duel between these AFC South Division rivals. Jacksonville notched a 16-14 home win in September’s meeting against the Titans, with the battle’s 30 combined points dipping below the ‘total’ of 37 ½. 

The Jaguars’ offense ranks lowest in the league for total yards (256.3 YPG) and passing yards (137.2 YPG), while its defense remains a top-five squad in allowed yards overall (307.4 YPG) and against the pass (196.9 YPG). Tennessee’s scoring has dropped to 15 PPG in its last two weeks of action, while its defense has given up 19.9 PPG all season, ranking the Titans eighth in the league. 

Jacksonville was lit up last week by Atlanta’s attack, but I feel it can be excused with the matchup taking place in a dome. The Jaguars have allowed a stingy 17.8 PPG in its four road games on grass, with the ‘under’ cashing at 4-0. 

Tennessee has given up 18.2 PPG in its last four home contests, including holding the explosive New Orleans Saints (32.6 PPG) to 22 points in their visit to LP Field, two weeks ago. The Titans have allowed 13.3 PPG in Jacksonville’s last three visits to their yard, with the ‘under’ going 3-0 in that span. 

The AFC’s playoff picture has the Titans (7-7) one game behind the New York Jets (8-6) and Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), while being tied with the Oakland Raiders (7-7) and San Diego Chargers (7-7). Look for Tennessee and Jacksonville to play this as an intensely-tight battle, with the Titans staying in the hunt and the Jaguars in a spot to spoil its rival’s postseason chances.