The Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets in their final matchup of the regular season. Lets see what the
sportsbook odds makers are offering and decide where we should place our
NFL picks to help ease our Christmas debts.
The New York Jets have logged two straight defeats, leading to a 2-5 spread mark in their last seven contests and very slim hopes for the playoffs. Rex Ryan’s crew heads south for Sunday’s season-finale matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who are 8-1 ATS in their last nine duels.
Sportsbooks opened Miami as a two-point home favorite, with early
NFL betting action on New York dropping the number to one.
NFL odds makers first listed the ‘total’ at 41 ½, remaining unchanged on most boards after mixed initial wagers.
Dolphins edged out by Pats
Miami saw a 17-0 halftime lead erased in last Saturday’s 27-24 loss as a nine-point road dog against the New England Patriots. The Dolphins gave up all 27 of the Pats’ points in unanswered fashion, while following the stretch with a late score to cash ATS tickets.
Dolphins quarterback
Matt Moore connected on 17-of-33 passes, notching touchdowns through the air in all three of his squad’s red zone trips. Moore’s backfield mate Reggie Bush dashed for 113 rushing yards on 22 carries, breaking the ‘century’ mark for a fourth straight game.
Miami’s defense allowed 400 total yards, with 119 coming on the ground. Dolphins safety Yeremiah Bell recorded one of his team’s four sacks, while finishing the matchup with eight tackles.
The contest’s combined 51 points leaped above the closing ‘total’ of 50, making the ‘over’ 3-1 in the Dolphins’ last four games. Dolphins placekicker Dan Carpenter hit a 47-yard field goal in his sole attempt, bringing the Nebraska native to a 4-of-4 mark in his last two weeks of action.
Jets fall apart against Giants
The Jets’ latest setback came in last Saturday’s 29-14 loss as a three-point favorite against the New York Giants. Flags flew at “The Met,” with the Jets penalized 10 times for a total of 95 yards, while quarterback Mark Sanchez led his squad to 22 first downs in a sizable 36 minutes of possession.
Sanchez completed 30-of-59 passes en route to tossing two interceptions and fumbling once. The 25-year-old’s favorite target was tight end Dustin Keller, who notched a team-high 77 receiving yards after eight receptions.
The Jets’ defense gave up 226 passing yards, including a 99-yard touchdown strike from Giants quarterback Eli Manning to wide out Victor Cruz. Jets linebacker David Harris snagged an interception for a second straight week, while logging his third sack in five games.
The battle’s combined 43 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 47, ending a 4-0 ‘over’ streak in the Jets’ prior four weeks of action. Sanchez’ offensive line gave up five sacks, including a safety in the fourth quarter.
Back the ‘under’ in this divisional duel
Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. (ET). The early weather forecast in Miami calls for a high of 76 degrees, with humidity of 73 percent and winds of 11 mph.
I am backing the 'Under' with my NFL Pick, looking for another tight affair between these foes in a rematch from October’s 24-6 win for the Jets as seven-point home ‘chalk.’
The Dolphins’ defense has improved since that battle, giving up a stingy 15 PPG in the team’s last five home dates. Miami has grown to be ranked third in the league against the run (93.4 YPG allowed), while being eighth in points allowed (19.7 PPG).
The Jets have been lit up for a combined 74 points in their last two games, but should tighten up in Miami. Harris and Co. have given up a fifth-lowest 205.9 YPG against the pass, while ranked seventh in overall yards given up (318.9 YPG).
Miami also has several injuries heading into Sunday’s affair, which could impede the team’s chances of moving the chains. Bush, who leads the team in rushing yards (72.4 YPG), is “questionable” with a leg injury and could be missing in the team’s backfield for the first time this year. Dolphins tight end Anthony Fasano (34.3 YPG) did not play in last week’s matchup due to a concussion and is “questionable” to face the Jets. Fasano’s linemate Jake Long is listed as “expected to miss,” nursing an arm injury as the team’s starting left tackle.
The ‘total’ should continue to drop here, with the current listing of 41 ½ worth grabbing before the number heads south.
SBRforum.com’s Half-Point Calculator illustrates the “41” combining in 4.1 percent of game results, making it one of the most key digits in the world of NFL scoring.
The ‘under’ is 4-1-1 in Miami’s last six home games, including 2-0 for the span’s pair of matchups that contained a ‘total’ of 41 ½ or less. Look for another low-octane battle here as both clubs grind out this finale on Sun Life Stadium’s grass.