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Season Record:  28-25-6 (+5.75 units) 

The NFL season is a grind.  Regardless of the shameless touts who insist they are hitting at an 85% clip, those who have been around the game understand that patience, money management and discipline win the day over the long haul.  There will be weeks where the moon and stars align and every bet turns out to be a winning one.  Unfortunately, the flip side of that coin is true as well Tim Tebowparticularly on days when your bankroll is shredded by the time the late games roll around.  That’s where you have to pause, collect yourself and fight the temptation to manufacture an opinion on a game you don’t even like just to try to get even for the week.  That is my sage advice for any player who indulges in sports betting and one day I might just take it! 

Last Sunday was a good one as we clicked on a rare maximum 5 unit play with Over in the Giants/Dallas game.  We went 2-1-1 last week and we continue to plug away, up almost 6 units after fourteen weeks.  Hey, I know it’s not a fortune but like I told you…it’s a grind. 

 

Patriots (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) at Broncos (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) 

If you don’t like Tim Tebow then you don’t love apple pie, the little baby Jesus and this great God fearing nation of ours, the good ol’ USA.  Now in the interest of full disclosure I am absolutely lovin’ Tebowmania.  We need to believe in something and why not a kid who makes no apologies about his devotion to his faith and leads ostensibly a clean life.  The media vultures are circling and waiting for proof that he is mortal so they can tear him right down before our very eyes. 

But that doesn’t mean I would necessarily back him with my hard earned money simply because he’s the kind of guy I’d like my daughter to marry.  No, he’s good but his defense is better.  While Timmy T may be the story, Von Miller is the reason.  I can see him putting the heat on Tom Brady and clogging up those short outs like Pittsburgh did in New England’s 25-17 loss back on October 30th.  Meanwhile, the Patriots secondary is such a mess it may be just what the doctor ordered for the Mile High Messiah.  

This is an all or nothing kind of play.  If Denver keeps it close, Tebow could very easily work his magic and pull another upset but I’ll grab the points just in case he’s out of miracles.  Denver + 7 ½ for 2 units.

 

 

Lions (8-5 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) at Raiders (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) 

The Lions reeled off 5 straight wins to start the season but did we really believe they would continue to decimate the competition as their high draft picks began to bear fruit?  Well no but then again nobody figured they start the season 5-0.  That’s essentially my point.  This year’s edition of the Lions is a good but not great group.  If you’re a Detroit fan, I am sure that’s plenty fine for you when reflecting upon their record over the last decade.  Arm stomper and defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh is back from a forced vacation and should feast upon the erratic Carson Palmer. 

Factor into the equation that Oakland star running back Darren McFadden is still ailing and Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is throwing like a champ with 29 TD’s to his credit.  So here’s the deal.  Oakland’s offense doesn’t scare me and their defense ranks 17th against the pass and 29th against the run.  Detroit has big play guys on both sides of the ball and at least got a win last week while Oakland has been getting torched by a combined score of 80-30 in their last two games, both losses.  Play Detroit -1 for 3 units.

 

 

Saints (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) at Vikings (2-11 SU, 5-6-2 ATS) 

Yes I know the Saints are one of the best teams on the planet and that Drew Brees should chew up this Minnesota secondary like a table of sumos at an all you can eat buffet.  But they’ve got the Falcons next week for a pivotal NFC South showdown.  They didn’t exactly overwhelm the Titans last week but a road win is a road win so how can I fault them.  

However, Christian Ponder will be back under center for the Vikes and Adrian Peterson is making his return.  That is a key reason why I like Minny in this spot.  The Saints are ranked 30th in the league against the run giving up almost 5 yards per carry!  If Peterson does what Peterson can do, look for him to move the chains, drain the clock and keep it close for the home fans.  Play the Vikings + 7 ½ (-125) for 3 units.

 

 

Ravens (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) at Chargers (6-7 SU, 4-9) 

We all know Norv Turner’s boys play their best football when it doesn’t matter.  The Chargers are in the midst of disappointing their most rabid fans (like my buddy Geno Bisconte) for a second straight season.   That being said, Phillip Rivers has finally exorcised the doppelganger who impersonated him so poorly earlier in the season that San Diego is on the outside looking in at the playoff picture.  

I am fully aware the Ravens defense rocks and they could very well turn the rolling Rivers into a dirty puddle on Sunday but remember, Baltimore is playing on the road where they’ve suffered all three of their losses this season.  And just whom have they lost to on the road you may ask?  How about Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle!  Not exactly the elite of the NFL. 

Guys, I’m not concerned about Baltimore’s offense.  It’s just good enough to get the wins they need but not capable of blowing teams out.  However, if Phillip Rivers is on the money, he can torture any secondary and he’s definitely back on track.  This is a live dog and we’ll back the Chargers +3 (-125) for 4 units.

 

 

Chime In Boys of SBR

As always, this recap will be a in a sticky thread posted in the NFL Betting Forum and simultaneously posted in Players Talk. I want to hear your thoughts, opinions and comments on my work and NFL picks so post at the bottom of this article or in the thread.