Where do we think that the best value lies on the Week 5 odds boards for your NFL Picks?

Week 4 presented another positive return for us as the Kansas City Chiefs let us down but the Washington Redskins and New York Giants did just enough to cover the spreads. Let’s have an early look at the Week 5 NFL Odds and see if we can keep the momentum on our side.

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Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots 

Peyton ManningI’m cautious to take the Broncos in this spot because they’ve played three home games and are 2-2 whereas the Patriots have played three road games and have the same record. Even so, this is a Peyton Manning-Tom Brady matchup and it should bring the best out of each side. 

Be sure to read my full preview & pick on this matchup.

The Patriots are listed as a seven-point favorite on the betting lines and I see that as being a tad too high. They haven’t faced a defense ranked in the Top 10 yet this season as the Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills are all out of the Top 15 in total defense. The Broncos are ranked eighth and should be able to slow down Brady and company – at least somewhat. 

On the flip side, for the Broncos to compete, they just need to avoid silly turnovers. The Patriots had only seven first-half points against the Bills last week and that was even with a couple of gift turnovers. If the Broncos don’t give them any freebies, this should be a close contest the entire way. 

I’ll take the Broncos plus the points in this spot.

Pick: Broncos +7

 

Houston Texans vs. New York Jets

I think a lot of people are making a lot of assumptions about how good the Houston Texans are and how bad the New York Jets are. Both teams are worlds apart, but I still think nine points is a lot to lay on the betting lines when you’re on the road. 

The Jets were absolutely embarrassed at home last week by the San Francisco 49ers. They failed in all three aspects of the game and then were shredded by their head coach – rightfully so – in the post-game. I can’t see them producing such a pitiful effort two weeks in a row and as a matter of fact, I see them playing much better because of their crummy performance last week. 

The trends don’t support me here as the Jets are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a home dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and the Texans have won nine of their last 12 straight up when favored on the road in the same range. Even so, I can’t see the Jets being so incompetent two weeks in a row – especially with the national audience watching on Monday Night Football.

Look for this to be a low-scoring, field goal-type contest with the Texans winning but the Jets covering. 

Pick: Jets +9

Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matt ForteI simply have no interest in adding the Jacksonville Jaguars to my picks in any situation unless I’m getting at least a touchdown. The Jaguars are a four-point home underdog in Week 5 against the Chicago Bears and it’s likely a tough spot for them to cover. 

The issue for the Jags is that their offense simply can’t move the ball. They’ve now scored 39 points over the last three weeks and have now scored 20 or less in 10 of their last 11 home games while averaging 16.3 points per outing.

I see the Bears being able to get to 20 points rather easily in this game. Their main flaw – the reason they seem to win or lose – tends to be the play of their offensive line. When it gives Jay Cutler the time to throw, he looks great. When he’s under pressure, the Bears can’t move the ball, can’t score and can’t win. However, the Jags have generated just two sacks in four games this season.

Lay the points with the Bears in this spot.

Pick: Bears -4