SJ is back for Week 6 NFL picks, remember check the thread and comment to be involved.
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Season Record: 9-7-3 (+3.7 units)
Sometimes
you feel like a kid in a candy store with too many NFL betting options to choose from and
you know if you buy everything you want, you’re gonna be sick in the
morning. It’s kind of the way I feel
about making my NFL picks in Week 6…I like just about everything!
But dammit, we have to think about money management! We must temper our enthusiasm and try to
avoid getting to wound up in our own hype. Are you reading this Brock Landers? Without anymore fanfare, let’s get down to business and make some money
this week. Good luck boys!
Over 54 Dallas/Patriots
The
Patriots have gone over in 14 of their last 16 games and have gone high in 17
of 23 at home. Yeah I know, you were the
ones that bet the over on those rare occasions that it went under. But look here, we know both offenses can
score. We also know that the Patriots
defense is suspect and Romo and Company have had a week off to formulate a game
plan to keep putting the ball in the end zone.
I know 54 is a big total for the NFL but these teams put up high octane
numbers. You wanna be sharp and take
advantage of what may be perceived as a bloated total, that’s fine. Me, I’m gonna crack open a cold one and cheer
like a square when the scoreboard lights up all game long. Play over 54 for 2 units.
Eagles at Redskins
The only
thing that concerns me here is that the Skins are rested after coming off a bye
week while the Eagles were spitting the bit against the Bills. Look, the Eagles are no dream team but seeing
as we’ve avoided backing them all season long, maybe it’s time to dip our toe
into the icy waters of Eagledom. The
Skins remind me of the Bills. A good
team that may be overvalued while Philly is the team everyone just loves to
hate.
Do you
think Vick will toss another interception this week? Hmm, maybe but not more than one as the
Eagles roll in DC this week. Philly is
13-6 ATS away after a straight up loss as chalk the week before. The Eagles -2 is the play for 3 units.
Rams at Packers
The
Rams had last week off to sit and reflect on why their performance has been so
abysmal this season. They are 0-4 and
are playing the best team in the NFL at home. We’ve seen plenty of blowouts this year in games where the teams are
fairly evenly matched (did you watch the 49’ers pound the Bucs last week 48-3
as only 3 point favorites?).
Here we
have the world champs squaring off against the world chumps. It looks too easy doesn’t it? Yeah, it does and there are a few stats to
back the Rams in this spot. The Packers
are 0-5 when favorites of 14 points or more and the Rams are a perfect 4-0
against the number over the last four years when coming off a bye week.
Damn
those statistics! Let’s be
reasonable. Every team is different and
those Packer teams that failed to cover as two touchdown favorites in the past
were not the 2011 Packers. Sure their
defense might let the Rams score but can St. Louis really contain Aaron Rodgers
and his fleet footed assassins? I say
nay! Back the Pack -14 for 3 units.
Bills at Giants
It
isn’t often that the underdog is the square play but that’s exactly the case
here as the 4-1 Bills travel to the Meadowlands to meet a Giants team that last
week cost Suicide Pool players everywhere to donate their cash and wait til
next year.
Let’s face it, the Bills
would have lost that game against the Eagles had Vick not turned the ball over
early and often. They let Philly back
into that game when they should have buried them. Buffalo is a vastly improved team and a huge
surprise this season but they will sputter and it begins this week.
For
those of you who love the numbers, here we go. The Giants are 6-0 ATS against
.666 or better opposition with revenge and Eli Manning is 6-3 ATS at home
versus a team off a
straight up underdog win. Series history (Giants 5-1 ATS last six) between
these clubs gives us more to think about but the Bills’ 0-8 ATS mark on the road in October versus an opponent
off a double-digit SU loss (like the Giants) just screams, “Bet the Giants you
sick bastards!” Play the Giants -3 for 4 units.
Texans at Ravens
The Texans
are a hurtin’ group and they are playing the thuggish Ravens in Week 6. That’s like going into a cage match to rest
your weary bones. Houston will be
without their chaos maker Mario Williams on the defensive line and will
probably be without the embarrassingly talented Andre Johnson at wideout. If you think Arian Foster will run roughshod
over the Ravens think again. Baltimore
allows a paltry 72 yards per game on the ground.
Hurricane
Joe Flacco (you heard that nickname here first) has enough weapons to keep the
Texans buried throughout. This line has
continued to rise since Baltimore opened as 6 point faves (due primarily to
Johnson’s status) and now we must take the plunge by laying 8. That is the only reason this is not a 5 unit
platinum play. Back the Ravens -8 for 4 units.
Dolphins at Jets
Boys,
this game's opening spread started with the Fins getting 9 but it has tumbled all the way down
to 7 at this point. There’s a damn good
reason for this Miami heat and I shall explain thusly. Last season the Jets were walloped by the Pats
in Week 13 and hosted Miami the following week as 5 point favorites. They lost that game outright and this year’s
edition of the J-E-T-S is not comparable to last years’.
Sure the Fish are winless but winless teams
(0-4) coming off a bye week are an astounding 22-3 ATS. And finally, recent history (last 11 games)
will illustrate that all these games are close with only one exception (a 27
point blowout by the Jets). This is a
great spot for a big play. Dolphins + 7 ½ (buying the hook) (-125) for
5 units.
As always, if you have a problem with my picks or predictions, let yourself be heard. Come on over to my NFL betting thread in the forum and tell us what you think.