NFL Picks: Week 7 Fades & Games To Avoid

We were on the right track in Week 6 once again as the Bills-Cardinals and Bengals-Browns contests surprised a number of bettors. See what teams won't receive a vote of confidence in the form of our NFL picks this week.

Let’s have a look at the fades for Week 7: 

Avoid: Baltimore Ravens 

Normally, in this ‘avoid’ section we’re staying away from teams that are playing poorly and are in a freefall. The Baltimore Ravens are 5-1 and are tied for the best record in the AFC, but they’re nonetheless a team you’ll want to be careful with in the next few weeks. 

The Ravens are now carried by their offense as their defense is no longer the vaunted stoppage unit that we’ve known in the past. You might be surprised to hear that their defense ranks 28^th overall and is allowing a whopping 136.5 rushing yards per game (26^th). 

Keep in mind that they’ve been playing without last year’s MVP candidate Terrell Suggs, but this past weekend they lost at least two more key contributors. Pro Bowlers Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb are both out – likely for the season – and tackle Haloti Ngata has a sprained knee (although he’s playing through it). The Ravens defense has already been bad this season, but now they’re without their best cornerback, their best player and their heart and soul leader. 

They’ve given up 441 rushing yards over the last two games. They play the Houston Texans this week, and this is probably a spot to avoid Baltimore. Going forward, keep in mind that their defense has been severely weakened. 

Don’t Touch: Jaguars-Raiders 

Good luck to you if you’re betting this game. 

The Jaguars-Raiders Week 7 contest might be one of the ugliest that we'll see all year, and it’s probably one of the toughest to handicap. 

On one hand, you’ve got the 1-4 Raiders who might get blown out (as they did by Denver two weeks ago) or they might be competitive (as they were last week in Atlanta). On the other hand, can you really count on Jacksonville to go across the country and steal a win on the road? Are they even capable of that? 

The Jags should look crisp as they’re coming off a bye, but I’ll give the edge here slightly to Oakland because they’ve been close in their two home games this season. In any case, stay away from this game as it’s an ugly one to bet. 

Don’t Touch: Titans-Bills 

This is a game that I’m going to be avoiding this week. For both teams, it looks like all is good in the neighborhood after stress-relieving wins last week, but I’m not sold that one win makes all the difference. 

For the Bills, they should have lost in Arizona when Jay Feely missed a very makeable game-winning 38-yard field goal at the end of the fourth quarter – especially after hitting a 61-yarder. For Tennessee, they also should have lost to Pittsburgh, who mismanaged the end of the game and also just missed a game-winning field goal.