What a wild six weeks of NFL action. Anything you thought you knew, can tossed right out the window. It's as crazy as it’s ever been. On any given week, any given team can win – literally. Except for maybe Jacksonville but that’s Blaine Gabbert’s fault.
Finding Value In Week 7
But seriously, we live in a league where there is a
four-way tie for first place in the AFC East – including the awful Buffalo
Bills and New York Jets – and there’s a three-way tie for first in the NFC West
– including the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. It’s still early in the
season but as the saying goes: “it’s getting late early.”
Here is a look at our value plays for Week 7:
Green Bay Packers at
St. Louis Rams
I’m going to jump on a bandwagon that will be filled with
many public bettors this week. Even so, I’m willing to take a shot after seeing
just how good the Packers offense can be when they’re on.
I wouldn’t make this a big bet as anyone betting Green
Bay should remember that they lost in Indianapolis the week before. This is
also their third straight road game.
However, this is a matchup of contrasting styles. If the
Packers turn this into a shootout, the Rams are not going to have a chance in
this game. St. Louis averages just 17.3 points per game and has been under that
mark in three of the last four games. If Green Bay scores three touchdowns,
which seems likely, they should be in good position to cover the spread. I’ll
tentatively trust the Packers.
Free Pick: Packers -5.5
Cleveland Browns at
This is a rematch of last year’s Fiesta Bowl where
Brandon Weeden’s Oklahoma State Cowboys knocked off Andrew Luck’s Stanford
Cardinals. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Luck will remember that loss
and want to play extra well to get his team the win.
There are not many good things to say about the Colts
after their 35-9 loss to the New York Jets last week but some home cooking
should do them good. Luck has been noticeably different at home compared to on
the road and that should be a main factor.
On the road, Luck has completed just 50.6% of his passes
while throwing one touchdown and five interceptions. His quarterback ratio is
52.1 when he’s away from home.
When he’s at home, Luck has completed 55.3% of his passes
while throwing six touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s posted a
quarterback rating of 85.4 at home.
I think home-field advantage is a key factor in this spot
as the Colts get the win and cover.
Free Pick: Colts -3
Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
In a complete toss up situation, I like the Pittsburgh
Steelers. I still think they’re the second-best team in the AFC North and I
think that will show on Sunday night.
The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t impressed me this season.
They’re three wins so far have come against Washington, Cleveland and
Jacksonville while their three losses have come against Baltimore, Cleveland
and Miami. If they can lose at home to Miami, they can surely lose at home to
The Bengals are no pushover and this won’t be a walk in
the park for Pittsburgh. And I would even label this bet more as a bet-against
Cincy than it is a vote of confidence for Pittsburgh. The Bengals can’t run the
ball these days (99.3 yards per game) and while their passing game is good,
they’ve given up 17 sacks on the year, which is fifth-most in the NFL. That’s
not going to cut it against the Steelers.
One of these teams will be below .500 this week. I see
that being Cincinnati...Therefore, I'll put the Steelers on as on of my free NFL picks.
Free Pick: Steelers -1
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