Football bettors who are starved for some pigskin action can find their NFL pointspread hors d'oeuvres right now with sports books releasing early Week 1 betting odds.
It's never too early for sportsbooks to start pushing the NFL, and in the past week books have started to unleash their football spreads for Week 1 games. Many people wonder why would I want to bet on a NFL game in May and have my money tied up until September?
It's true that sharps do not engage or "steam" these lines that are so far off in the distance. But at the same token they do invest their money if they see a number they see as being cheap and worth the investment.
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If a key player gets injured on a team they bet on in May, they can simply hedge their bet by betting the other side with a bigger amount closer to the kick off of the season. You have to remember that sports books put a limit on the amount you can wager on these games, so sharps are not betting their normal bet size on these numbers so you will not see the numbers fluctuate too much.
Many recreational players do not bet football games until game day just a few hours before kick off, and books know recreational bettors do not want a ticket sitting in their back pocket for three months. So these opening week lines are geared more toward the serious bettor.
These lines are very useful to handicappers and sharp bettors because you can start to get a gauge on the power ratings oddsmakers have assessed teams for the upcoming season. Remember oddsmakers give three points in the line to the home team automatically, so if you a home team at -3 that means oddsmakers power ratings have both teams dead even.
We'll glance over every game and I will give you my take on which ones you may want to invest in and which games you may want to avoid.
Minnesota at New Orleans (-5, O/U 51)
A lot on this game depends on Brett Favre's return status which remains uncertain since it has not been confirmed 100% yet. Sources are saying it is likely he will return, but if he does not return and you grab this number at -5 today you will be getting a very conservative number that will not be around come Week 1. If you buy into it today and he does return, you have the opportunity to hedge your bet and take the points with the Vikings if you feel they can hang with the Saints.
Carolina at NY Giants (-7, O/U 40)
You may want to look at the under this game here, that is with the expectations of the Giants defense improving coming into the season, and the expectations that the Panthers are in rebuilding mode, and their offense is a question mark. Otherwise wait on this game until August to get a better grasp on what both teams look like in preseason. I'd be in no hurry to invest in this game in May.
Miami at Buffalo (+1, O/U 37½)
You may consider this number kind of cheap with the expectations that the Dolphins should be improved with the addition of Brandon Marshall, a healthy Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and the Wildcat threat, but you have to remember their defense was ranked 25th in the league in 2009. Backing a bad defensive road favorite has is a no-no as any sharp will tell you. But if you trust Miami you may want to grab it now at the cheap price.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-1, O/U 40½)
Keep a very close eye on this line because I think this is a cheap number to get Pittsburgh at. Byron Leftwich ran with the first stringers all week in OTA's with very good results from what I've read. This may be a big swing on the football odds due to the fact of the Big Ben suspension. You can take Pittsburgh now at the cheap -1 price, and if the public bets heavy on Atlanta on game day, you may be able to get Pittsburgh as a small dog and bet it again. My advice take the Steelers now, and if the QB situation does no pan out you can always hedge it later.
Detroit at Chicago (-7, O/U 42)
Matt Stafford in year number two should make strides, and I have some expectations of seeing him come into form since he should be more familiar with the offensive system in his second season. I'd take Detroit here getting a touchdown against a divisional rival, and if things are not shaping up for Detroit come August, you can always hedge your bet. Remember Chicago does not blow teams out, and this early in the season you see games a lot closer in scoring margins as teams are still getting into their groove.
Cincinnati at New England (-5½, O/U 43½)
This is simple if you like New England bet it now because you are getting them under the key number of 7, if you like the Bengals wait until game day because it is sure this line will be 7 or higher by kick off.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-1, O/U 37)
Pass. Oddsmakers are suggesting that the Browns are two points better than Tampa Bay in their power ratings heading into 2010 is about all I read from this game. Do not tie up your money for three months on this game which will likely even be a dud on game day for sharp bettors.
Denver at Jacksonville (-1, O/U 41½)
You may want to consider that you are getting a home team laying under a field goal here, but I would not tie up my money on either side of this game until I get a feel of how they look in camp. I'd pass this one out until August/September.
Indianapolis at Houston (+3, O/U 47)
The Texans were showing life at times in 2010 as being a team that has playoff caliber. They are a young team on the rise and should be even better this year. Knee jerk reaction is take the divisional home dog getting the field goal. Take Houston +3.
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Oakland at Tennessee (-7, O/U 41)
Jason Campbell may flourish under center for Oakland and I would advise taking the seven points with Oakland now, because even by game day I expect sharps to back Oakland getting the touchdown in this spot. You may also think this total is a little low considering a vulnerable Titans secondary and a Raiders run defense that was flawed a year ago.
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-1, O/U 45½)
This is a pretty simple philosophy, if you like Philly bet 'em now laying under the key number of 3. If you like Green Bay you may want to wait to see if you get a better number on game day. Also think, September in Philly should be warm weather, and this game features two of the more potent offenses in the NFC. The line sits under the key number of 48, so the over may be worth a look.
San Francisco at Seattle (-1, O/U 38)
I think there is too much respect here for Seattle and would not be surprised to see San Francisco as the favorite by kick off. Letting history be the judge, NFL coaches in their first home game with their new team usually struggle to cover the spread in that situation over the years. Take the Niners.
Arizona at St. Louis (+3½, O/U 42)
Laying more than a field goal on the road with Matt Leinart? I'd watch this number all summer, if it drops to 3 take St.Louis right away. Otherwise wait until later in the Summer and watch the number rise to 4 or higher. The Rams in their second year under Spag could make a big improvement and Arizona is caught in a bad spot with an unproven QB here on the road. You may want to wait to see how Leinart looks throughout the summer but you could always hedge the other way if you have to on game day.
Dallas at Washington (+3, O/U 42)
This will be the unveiling ofDonovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan. Knee jerk reaction is take the divisional home dog in the primetime Sunday Night game but remember that coaches in their first home game with their new team usually struggle to cover the spread in that situation over the years. But I'd still lean Washington now at +3.
Baltimore at NY Jets (-3, O/U 37½)
We are seeing the key number of 37 here and we are a half of point above that number at 37.5. Two great defensive teams, I'd take the under now because this number will be at 37 or lower by kick off. As far as a side it's a tough call. Pundits are calling for the Jets to be in serious running for the AFC title and more, but I think we may see a sophomore slump from Rex Ryan and company. Oddsmakers have these teams pegged dead even in their power ratings. This Monday night game will be the heaviest bet game of the weekend.
San Diego at Kansas City (+5½, O/U 44½)
Knee jerk is take the divisional home dog getting over a field goal this spot. The Chargers never come out of the gates looking dominant and I do not trust them laying over a FG in this spot.