With two solid offenses on the field, the fans in London should see a lot of scoring on Sunday. Cash the New Orleans Saints as the underdogs and play the Over as well.
This game is being played in London and should be a much more entertaining contest than last year’s low scoring, muddy affair between the Giants and the winless Dolphins.
Both of these teams are equally great offensively, as the Saints have averaged 6.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Chargers have averaged 6.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Saints have been better defensively so far this season.
New Orleans was shaky defensively the first three games of the season but they’ve tightened up the last four games and now rate at average for the season on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off a poor defensive game in Buffalo (6.4 yppl allowed) and they’ve given up 5.5 yppl for the season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team).
The loss of Reggie Bush doesn’t hurt the Saints offense at all, but he’s been worth almost three points per game with his punt returns, three of which have gone for touchdowns, and San Diego now has the special teams edge in this game with New Orleans continuing to suffer with their place kicking.
My math model favors New Orleans by ½ a point, so I like the Saints plus the points in this one and I'll favor the Over.
Prediction: New Orleans-27 San Diego-26
Free Pick: Saints +3 / Over 45
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