The New England Patriots are firing on all cylinders offensively, as they prepare for their first of two meetings against the Miami Dolphins in the final five weeks of the 2012 NFL regular season. Let’s take a closer look at this AFC East matchup from an NFL betting perspective.


Scoring at will

New England scored 108 combined points against the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts, which happens to the highest two-week point total in team history. The Patriots have gone OVER the total in their last nine games—a streak that could continue due to the last four meetings in this series climbing above the number. The franchise has scored at least 27 points in winning its last four games against this Sunday’s opponent. 

Dolphins get back on the winning track 

Tom BradyMiami snapped a three-game losing streak by picking up a 24-21 come-from-behind victory over the Seattle Seahawks as three-point home underdogs in Week 12, while managing to go OVER the total for the first time in seven contests. The Dolphins are 0-2-1 against the spread (ATS) when playing off an upset win as an underdog this year, which is important to consider when making your NFL predictions this weekend.

Patriots get better as the season wears on

NFL handicappers are going to have a hard time playing against the Patriots as a road favorite in this affair, considering they’ve won their last 19 games in the second half of the regular season since 2010. New England is averaging 38.7 points per game in that stretch, while holding opponents to 18.8 points per game. The OVER is 7-1 in the team’s last eight games in December. 

Taking care of the football

The Dolphins can stay within the number represented on the NFL odds page if they take care of the football, especially when you consider that the Patriots have forced 32 turnovers through 11 games. Miami is tied-13th in the AFC with a minus-10 turnover differential, which isn’t even in the same ball park as New England’s league-leading plus-24 mark.

Road team has gotten the cash

The road team has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings in this divisional rivalry, which fits nicely with the Patriots going 15-5-1 ATS away from Foxborough over the last two-plus seasons. It’s very hard to ignore that Sunday’s host has compiled a money-burning 23-52-1 ATS mark in its last 76 games inside Sun Life Stadium. 

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Patriots as one of their NFL picks in Week 13, considering the Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in both of their games when allowing 30 or more points this season. New England has hit or gone over that mark eight times this season.

NFL Week 13 Pick: New England Patriots -7 at Bookmaker