The Steelers are at their best vs. good teams at home, which explains why they are 5-0 ATS at home as single-digit favorites. Lay the small spot vs. Jacksonville today.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the spread in five consecutive games, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a loss and are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.
However, the Jaguars apply to a very negative 18-55 ATS road letdown situation while Pittsburgh applies to a 163-96-8 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggest that they have the characteristics of a team that should cover at home against other good teams. That certainly appears to be the case given that Pittsburgh is 7-0 straight up at home and 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of less than 10 points this year. The technical analysis favoring Pittsburgh gives the Steelers a 60.7 percent chance of covering at a fair line (based on the past predictability of my angles and the statistical significance of the ones that apply to this game). However, my math model suggests that the fair line on this game should be Pittsburgh by only 2 ½ points and I’m not willing to lay 3½ points with the Steelers in a Best Bet since three is such a key number.
I would consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -3 (at -1.20 odds or less) and I’d take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.10 odds or better
© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author