I like playing a 5* play on the Washington Redskins as they take to the road to play the Buffalo Bills set to start at 7:00 PM ET, August 9, 2012. From a NFL betting stand point, who do we think has the edge in this game?
This marks the first preseason
game on the NFL betting card for the 2012 season. Last year, the Redskins went a
solid 3-1 while Buffalo was just 1-3 in preseason action. Many amateurs view
the preseason as opportunities to lose money with no realistic opportunity to
make money. However, as many of you know from my previous seasons, there are
great and consistent opportunities to make money in the NFL preseason.
First, taking a look at head
coach tendencies and how they prepare for the games lends itself to some
immediate opportunities to research further. The Eagles under head coach Andy
Ried, have been money burners with a 21-31 SU record and 22-28-2 ATS and are
just 1-7 ATS in home preseason games coming off a straight up win. So, if the
Eagles play well and execute at a high level with the first unit, then Ried has
a strong tendency to rest players, especially starters in the next game.
Washington’s Mike Shanahan takes
the preseason far more serious and uses each game to prepare for the regular
season. He has posted a 47-29 straight up record and has gone 42-32-2 ATS.
Conversely, Buffalo head coach Chan Gailey has gone just 4-14 straight up and
5-13 ATS. So, you have two coaches with completely opposite coaching tendencies
playing each other in the first week of the preseason. This is just one of many
reasons I like Washington as a 5* graded play.
Adding further support for a play
on Washington based on the coaching tendencies is that Shanahan is a solid
34-14 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1993.
Buffalo’s Chan Gailey is a horrid 2-11 ATS in non-conference games in all games
he has coached since 1993.
The Redskins drafted Baylor’s
Robert Griffin III and he will add a ton to the offensive production this
season. head coach Mike Shanahan and his son, offensive coordinator Kyle,
design offensive schemes that are successful with mobile quarterbacks. This
history stretches back to Mike’s head coaching days in Denver where he had John
Elway under center.
RG3 will be a threat to run the
ball on nay down and he is showing to be a very accurate long passer. Play
action, will be a featured play for the Redskins offense freezing linebackers
and slowing the pass rush of any opponent. A combination that will be an
exciting one to watch unfold will be when RG3 throws deep to wide receiver
Pierre Garcon off of play action.
The play action pass is only as
effective as a team’s running game. Last season the Redskins fell behind to
quickly on the scoreboard and never had an opportunity to establish the power
running game and wear down a defensive line. This year will be different with
having RG3 under center and having a duel back power game with Roy Helu and Tim
Hightower pounding the ball.
The simulator shows that the
Redskins will be focused on running ball against Buffalo in this game. The sim
shows a high probability that Washington will gain between 125 and 150 rushing
yards in this game. This is not good news for the Buffalo Bills as they are
just 2-14 ATS in preseason games where they have allowed 125 to 150 rushing
yards since 1993.
This being said, the Redskins are the team to add to your NFL picks, as we are looking for them to run their way to the first eam victory of the year.
NFL Pick: Redskins