Sports betting review of the week

A glance at the ATS records of the AP Top 10 college football teams heading into Week 8 might say it all:

1)      LSU (5-2 ATS)

2)      Alabama (6-1 ATS)

3)      Oklahoma (4-2 ATS)

4)      Wisconsin (5-0-1 ATS)

5)      Boise St (4-2 ATS)

6)      Oklahoma St (5-1 ATS)

7)      Stanford (6-0 ATS)

8)      Clemson (6-1 ATS)

9)      Oregon (3-2-1 ATS)

10)   Arkansas (4-2 ATS)

So overall that’s 48-13-2, or a 79% cover rate for all the current Top 10 teams. At this point in the season, of course, teams are in the Top 10 because they have been playing well and winning, so one would expect them to have been decent college football picks overall. But most years around this time, that cover rate is still in the 50s. Last year at this time, for instance, the AP Top 10 teams had a combined ATS record of 38-27-1, 58%, and in 2009 at this time, the AP Top 10 teams had a combined ATS record of 33-26-1, 56%.

So why does this matter? Because the teams in the Top 10 tend to be teams gaining media attention and hype, and are usually big favorites, which means they tend to be teams that NCAAF bettors overwhelmingly likes to bet on. So the sportsbooks often wind up with lopsided action on those games, and if most of the public-backed sides do wind up covering on any given day, it can mean big losses for the books. 

That’s what’s been happening week-in and week-out this season, and this past weekend it seemed to only get worse, as there were reportedly only 2 high-volume games that the books won with. The rest of the high-volume games – all involving public-darling big favorites – all went the way of the public and against the books. The books are supposedly not even getting losing action from the sharps, who more often than not, are betting on the same sides the books need to win to make money.

The big sharp action this year, which also is normally expected to snap up anti-public lines that are moved by the books specifically to attract that action so the books can reduce their risk, has reportedly as often as not been on the same side as the public this year, or mostly staying off games altogether.

The NFL this past week was not as big of a disaster for the books as college was, despite the fact that some public-backed favorites such as Green Bay did cover the NFL odds spread. NFL was mostly a wash for the books, but any little bit they may have made on the NFL was not nearly enough to cover losses from college football. 

And to add a little insult to injury was the result of the Monday night game, usually a very heavily-bet game and one that can be very profitable for the books if the outcome is favorable to them.

This past week, The Jets covered the spread as a public-backed favorite – par for the course this year. But brutally, the game also had a relatively low closing total, which would normally induce the public to bet the over. In the past, 9 times out of 10, the public loves the over in the Monday night game, and the books need the under to win. This week however, despite the low total, the public strongly favored the under and the game did go under, in one of the few games where the books needed the over, leaving the books nursing more yet wounds and tallying up further losses. 

We’ll see how things turn out the rest of the year, but the lines on the upcoming college and NFL cards are filled with the same names with the same kinds of lines that have been killing the books all year - LSU as a 21-point favorite over Auburn, a fellow SEC team, and a ranked one, no less; Alabama -29.5 over SEC conference-mate Tennessee; Stanford -20 over Washington, a fellow PAC-12 team that has only one loss on the year.