Super Bowl Odds: Pick the Patriots

AFC Championship game post game interview

After the New England Patriots were lucky enough to hold on after a couple of huge Baltimore mistakes,the celebration in New England began. Owner Robert Kraft hugged former Patriots star Tedi Bruschi and the Brady-Belichick Patriots were off to seek a 4th Super Bowl title, unaware of who their future opponent would be as the San Francisco 49'ers took on the New York Giants in the later game.

Two things that stood out to me were the demeanors of coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady. These are to men that wreak of confidence. Belichick is usually very quiet and arrogant while Brady is usually more expressive but yet slightly arrogant. 

When taking the stand on the podium, Jim Nance asked Belichick about the game and one couldn't help but notice that he seemed very "un-Belichick" like, smiling, being humble, and giving major credit to everyone other than himself. When Tom Brady took to the podium you got a two word answer that you wouldn't expect from possibly the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Nance asked Brady about his thoughts on the game, and Brady came back with an abrupt "I sucked". Have the Patriots lost that "chip", that "chip" that they've carried with them for so long?

New England's worst nightmare

We all know what eventually happened, as the Giants, despite a 9-7 regular season record, capitalized off of a San Francisco blunder and went on to win the NFC Championship game. Amazingly enough, Eli Manning is in a better position, than his more talented brother Peyton Manning, to win a second Super Bowl Championship. People are actually comparing Eli to Peyton. Who would've thought that this comparison would ever enter anyone's mind?

For the Patriots, it's a positive and a negative. They have a chance to avenge the loss from Super Bowl XLII and win a 4th ring but there's also the possibility that they can be beaten twice in the Super Bowl by the same team that's inferior to them. In my opinion, this is a matchup that Belichick and Brady weren't looking for.

The NFL odds have the Patriots as a 3 point favorite and the total is 55. Don't expect the 3 points to change.

"Cruz Control"

In Super Bowl XLII the Patriots had few concerns as they were a double digit favorite against the G-Men but in this Super Bowl, there's much more to be concerned about. 

New England is ranked 31st in passing yards (293.9 yards) and along with the clutch play of Eli Manning, the Giants have the trio of Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham.

Victor Cruz has burst upon the scene in his rookie season setting two Giants records. He's caught for 1536 yards and has caught a 99 yard touchdown pass. In crucial moments when the Giants need a big play, Eli Manning always looks for Victor Cruz. The Patriots secondary must stick to this young man like glue in order to have success.

The Patriots need to also be concerned with receiver Hakeem Nicks. Nicks burnt the NFL for 1192 yards and 7 TD's. He's a physical receiver with good hands.

I know when we talk about the Patriots, we talk about Tom Brady and the offense but the defense needs to stop Eli Manning from pulling out these miraculous comebacks. Manning isn't the greatest every down quarterback but when it comes to being clutch, he's mastered it.

Shootout in Indy

You can bet, and you should bet, that there will be a shootout in this game. The Patriots offense is much more powerful than San Francisco's and the Giants are equally as poor against the pass as the Pats are. Tom Brady should have plenty of opportunities in this game to do what he does best and if he can avoid the clutches of defensive tackle Jason Pierre-Paul, the Patriots will be in fantastic shape.

Gronk

With his size,strength, athleticism, and great hands, tight end Rob Gronkowski will be a concern of the Giants defense all evening. Tom Brady has formed an amazing chemistry with Gronkowski but this isn't one of the players that Brady makes better, Gronk is a superstar on his own. He set a record for touchdowns in a season by a tight end this season.

The New England Patriots have a deadly passing offense filled with a wide array of options. There's a possibility that Tom Brady uses Gronkowski as a decoy, leaving other receivers open for more opportunities. I've listed the names before. Welker, Branch, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Woodhead, and Ochocinco. The Patriots can beat the Giants in many different ways and I expect Tom Brady to have a huge game in this Super Bowl.

Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis

It's difficult enough to say his name in one breath but it will be worth it to Patriots bettors and fans if BJGE can put up a similar performance like the one that he did against Baltimore. Ellis doesn't need to be a 100 yard runner, he just need's to take the predictability away from New England's passing game.

Against the Ravens, he rushed for 68 yards on 15 carries with 1 TD. Coach Bill Belichick will gladly take that from Ellis against the Giants and he should provide similar numbers. The Giants defense couldn't hold a candle to the Ravens defense.

Propping for the game

First of all, I'm not into the 50/50 propositions where luck is concerned. Heads or tails is pot luck. I'll give you a list of some of the props that are appealing to me from a New England Patriots perspective.

MVP of Super Bowl XLVI

Most of my money would go on Tom Brady as a heavy 13/10 favorite and I'd sprinkle a few dollars on Rob Gronkowski (15/2) and Wes Welker (15/1). I love the value on Welker!

What are we betting?

I'm going to fade the public as I think that Tom Brady and New England's offense is unstoppable when they face a defense with holes in it. Look for both teams to be competitive as they know each other well.

The Patriots are destined to even up the score in this Super Bowl series and get that elusive 4th ring. Brady's time is running short and he won't get many more chances. Take the Patriots and lay the points. 

My Super Bowl NFL Picks are New England -3 as the main bet and consider a play on the Over (at 55) for half the amount of the main bet.