Although we have to wait two whole weeks until the game,
this year's Super Bowl should prove to be as exciting as most in recent memory.
Only four years ago these teams were facing off against one
another for the ultimate prize. Circumstances were a bit different back in
2008, when Tom Brady and the Patriots were undefeated. Little known David Tyree
made one of the greatest catches of all time and then baby Eli Manning led his
Giants to one of the greatest Super Bowl upsets in history.
Back then, the undefeated Patriots were -12.5 favorites.
This year, things are a bit different. New England has opened up in the NFL odds as -3.5 point favorites;
while some sports betting shops have the line at -3. The Super Bowl always has
billions of dollars in play. However, this year's game in Indianapolis just
might break some records. Who cares if it's a bad economy? This is Boston
versus New York once again for the big one. Let's take a look at what kind of
movement to expect and where the value might go during the next few weeks.
A gift from above
The Patriots played a pretty average game against the Ravens
yesterday. Tom Brady even said it himself during the post game celebration when
he admitted, “I sucked pretty bad.” Either way, Billy Cundiff missed what would
have been a game tying field goal for Baltimore, which sealed the deal for Tom
Brady to head to his 5th Super Bowl.
The one thing I took away from the game, besides the horror
and disbelief on all the faces of the Ravens, was the play of New England's
defense. The Patriots' defense only allowed one red zone conversion out of four
tries for Baltimore's offense. They also sacked Joe Flacco 3 times and hit him
7 more times after that. This is good news for New England. Their defense has
struggled all season. If they can get this kind of pressure on Eli Manning here
in two weeks, their chances of covering are much greater than they would have
been just a few weeks ago.
Eli the improbable
What is it about seemingly impossible odds and one in a
million scenarios that gets Eli Manning going?
Once he and his brother's careers are over, how will Eli compare to his
brother? Will Peyton be the ultimate game changer, while Eli is remembered for
being as clutch as anyone? It sure seems to be heading that way. Eli and the
Giants didn't need a miraculous late comeback this time; rather just another
timely turnover from a young backup.
The 49ers' backup return man Kyle Williams lost his second
fumble of the game in overtime and gave the ball to the Giants in field goal range.
Lawrence Tynes hit his second field goal of the game and his second NFC
Championship game winner in the last four seasons, to send New York back to the
Super Bowl.
Super odds and super story
When we first take a look at Patriots -3.5 the thing that
comes to my mind is how much people are going to value the Giants taking points
two weeks before the game. Early numbers out of Vegas have the public already
laying 55% of their money on the Giants +3.5. This can be known as the history
bet. I think we will see this throughout the week. The public will most likely
pound the Giants down a ways. It might be somewhat similar to the NFC
Championship betting we saw throughout last week. The 49ers opened around -3
and people pounded the line down all the way to -1 in some shops. I don't
expect that much line movement this week, but I do expect similar results in the
spread movement as a whole. Late in the day on Sunday, there was a flurry of
action on the 49ers, pushing the number back up to -2.5.
As always, keep the discussion going in the forum and keep
your browser glued right here for more on the biggest game of them all.