The New York Giants and the New England Patriots meet once again in Super Bowl XLVI. Where should you look when placing your your Super Bowl picks? We have crunched all of the numbers, and our Super Bowl predictions look rock solid.
Join me in my NFL with John Ryan thread each
day leading up to the kick-off. I will providing thought provoking ideas and
discussion on this game. It will be hard to convince be that the ‘over’ is the
play to be made and I think I make a very convincing argument based on comprehensive
research. Share your ideas and lets’ all have fun with the prop bets too.
Super Bowl Predictions
20* graded sports betting play in favor of the ‘UNDER’ Patriots/Giants in the Super Bowl set to
start at 6:29 PM ET, February 5, 2012. Since 2001, I have produced a solid 7-1
ATS mark with my Super Bowl picks. Last year I did have the Packers, and the
year before nailed both the Saints and the ‘under’ as Top Level releases. I do
believe that the Super Bowl offers me the opportunity use a complete season of
games to evaluate just one game. The evolution of each team during the regular
season is invaluable to assess and then apply for money making opportunities.
Let’s delve into the technical side of this play first and address the specific matchups, then conclude with some proposition bets.
Simulator Projections
My proprietary NFL handicapping database and simulator show a
high probability that fewer than 55 points will be scored in this game. Both
teams know they cannot afford to get into a shooting match flow of game and
expect to win. Neither team has faired well in these type of situations. The simulator
shows a high probability, exceeding 80%, that both teams will score fewer than 28
points.
In past games where the Giants have allowed 21 to 28 points they
have posted a 1-3 ATS mark this season, 26- ATS mark the past three seasons,
and 26-44 ATS mark since 1992. In similar fashion, New England is just 2-4 ATS
this season, 5-10 ATS mark spanning the past three seasons, and 26-54 ATS mark
since 1992. So, I fully expect both teams to create offensive schemes that
minimize miscues, penalties, and turnovers.
In the 45 previous Super Bowls, the team that has had the most turnovers has only come back to win four times SU, for 8.9% winners, and six times ATS for
just 13% ATS winners. Both teams and coaching staffs are well
aware of this simple fact, and it makes complete sense that the first half
offensive game plans will reflect that the goal will be to hold on to the ball at all cost.
Also, in the past 45 Super Bowls, the teams that win the time of
possession battle are 32-13 SU for 71% winners and 32-11-2 ATS for 75% ATS
winners. So, I do believe the running games will featured far more than most
major networks are forecasting.
Matchups
The media is completely focused on the "hot" Giants and the fact that
they have 21 players from their 2008 Super Bowl winning team. Do not get caught
up with evaluating playoff experience or how first time Patriots players will
handle the big-game hype. Belichick and Brady are making their fifth Super Bowl
appearance and have the most playoff wins as a head coach-quarterback tandem in
NFL history. This leadership will transcend through the entire team.
The New York Giants' defensive front has done very well down the stretch in
their five elimination games. What is being overlooked is that the
Patriots have two of the best guards in the NFL, not to mention their solid tackles as well. One way to contain the Giants elite perimeter pass rushers is to use
either a third TE or another OL, a scheme they have used successfully all season long.
Keep in mind too, that
Brady has great movement and command in the pocket, giving him
that extra half second to get the ball out. Brady typically has the ball out of his hand in two seconds or less and that takes away any
perimeter pressure the Giants may be able to attain.
The media would lead you to believe that the New England Patriots are a pass
oriented offense and that the Giants will use their ‘Four Aces” defensive front to dominate the Patriots offensive line. For the season, the Patriots
average 6.3 yards per play, rush the ball 41% of the time, pass 58.9% of the
time, with Brady completing 65% of his pass attempts. By comparison, the
Giants have averaged 5.9 yards per play, rush the ball 39.8% of the time, pass
60.2% of the time, and Manning has completed 61.1% of his pass plays.
My opinion is based on
this extensive and comprehensive research including the simulator projections
that the ‘UNDER” is the play to be made. I have produced a 7-1 ATS in Super
Bowl picks since 2001 clearly and I am confidently taking the ‘UNDER’.
My Super Bowl Pick: Take the Under