In this first part of our Six-Part series, our NFL Experts’ Roundtable we will be giving a general overview of the game, and discussing why the spread is so low this year.
Super Bowl 45 has one of the smallest spreads in recent
memory, with the Green Bay Packers favored by only 2.5 points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Looking over the teams on paper, it becomes apparent why.
Both teams appear to be stronger on defense, with offenses
that are above-average but not elite, and with some clear question marks, if
not outright weaknesses. Pittsburgh has had a great running game this year led
by Rashard Mendenhall, and an effective passing game featuring Ben
Roethlisberger and an array of speedy receivers who may have been a bit
underutilized during the season due to Pitt’s run and defense-oriented rugged
style of play.
The Packers’ offense appears to be more imbalanced that
Pittsburgh’s with the Pack relying heavily on their great passing game,
featuring a top-tier QB in Aaron Rodgers and a receiving corps that some call
the best in the NFL. The Packers’ running game, though, has been problematic
all season long, and while new featured back James Starks has shown flashes of
effectiveness in the playoffs, he does not inspire great confidence in an area
that has plagued the Packers all season long.
The offensive lines of both teams are also seen as their
biggest weak spots in general, and Pittsburgh’s O-line in particular may take a
big hit with starting center Maurkice Pouncey sitting out the Super Bowl with
injuries.
The defenses involved in this Super Bowl, however, are
clearly top-notch. Pittsburgh has easily the best run defense in the NFL,
enjoying success even against teams with normally effective running games. This
of course looms particularly daunting for Green Bay due to their aforementioned
problems in the run game.
Pitt’s pass defense has generally been good, but most
of their good performances have come against lesser teams that either didn’t focus
heavily on the pass or didn’t pass particularly well, and there are some
troubling signs that Pitt’s pass defense is vulnerable against elite passing
games, which Green Bay certainly qualifies as having. This issue was discussed
in Part 2 of the SBRtv Experts’ Roundtable, and it will be addressed more
in-depth in the second article of this series.
Green Bay’s defense has also been very good. They have an
excellent secondary, and their run defense has come alive in the playoffs,
having given up only an average of 3.5 yards per carry so far.
So this is how the game sets up, and it is why
the spread on the game is so competitive. Will Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers be able to throw the
ball all day on Pitt’s possibly vulnerable Pass D? Will Green Bay’s run defense
be able to stop Pitt’s efficient and effective offense predicated on relatively
long drives? How much will Pitt’s offense suffer as a result of the loss of Maurkice Pouncey? Will Green Bay’s questionable offensive line be able to protect QB
Aaron Rodgers and hold off Pitt’s awesome pass rush and run defense? These are
the key issues in the game, and the Experts’ Roundtable panel addresses them in
their Super Bowl 45 preview.
Later in the week we will cover the Steelers’ pass defense in Part 2, Green Bay’s offense if they have to abandon the run Part 3, the likely game plans for both teams in Part 4, the impact of the game being played indoors in Part 5, and then finally the summarizing football picks and leans of the panel members in Part 6.
You can watch all the videos covering all these topics now at video.SBRForum.com.