Tennessee looks to move to 7-0 on the season against an inconsistent Indianapolis squad. Lay the points on the Titans at home Monday when they host the Colts.
I went against the Colts last week for a 3-Star Best Bet winner on Green Bay, and Indy still appears to be overrated.
The Colts have been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are only 0.2 yppl better than average if I take out Peyton Manning’s rusty performance in the opener against Chicago (he missed all of training camp and the preseason and was obviously rusty).
Tennessee’s defense is good against the run and the pass, and the Titans rate at 0.8 yppl better than average defensively overall (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Colts to have much success in this game. The Titans’ offense has been a bit sluggish, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average and they are at a slight disadvantage against a Colts’ stop unit that is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team).
Tennessee is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Titans by 8 points in this game. There are very strong situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll stick with the math and lean with the Titans minus the points.
Prediction: Tennessee-23 Indianapolis-16
Free Pick: Titans -4 (-110)
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