The Titans are 9-0 and the Jaguars looked great against the Lions, but who doesn’t look good vs. Detroit? With Jacksonville 0-4 ATS at home, take Tennessee once again.
The Jacksonville Jaguars looked great last week, beating up the Detroit Lions 38-14.
Prior to the game, the money poured in on the Lions, as the betting marketplace was convinced that Jack Del Rio’s squad was beset with internal turmoil. Rather than falling apart in Detroit, however, the Jaguars pulled together, earning their first win of the year by more than a touchdown.
This week, the betting marketplace seems to think that all of the Jaguars problems are solved. The money has poured in on Jacksonville, as bettors are looking for the Jags to end the Tennessee Titans perfect season.
Clearly, these bettors have paid no attention to recent history. Let’s start with this key fact - Jacksonville has no homefield edge whatsoever. The Jags are 0-fer the season against the spread at home, losing as a favorite in straight up fashion in three of their four home games.
Then, we must consider this fact that everybody looks great when they play the Lions. There’s a reason that Detroit is 0-9, looking at the NFL’s first winless season since 1976 square in the face. But we’ve seen a very dramatic pattern for teams after they face the NFL’s weakest team.
These teams have been overvalued in the betting marketplace after looking so good against Detroit, unable to step up in class against a “real” opponent. The numbers don’t lie. The first eight teams to beat Detroit went 0-8 against the spread in their next ballgame. That is an under-the-radar angle that is surely worth riding once again here.
Tennessee isn’t a “sexy” undefeated team like the Patriots (16-0 in the regular season) were last year or the Colts in 2005 (13-0 start) and 2006 (9-0 start). There’s no Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on Tennessee. The Titans don’t score 40 points against anybody, they don’t have a household name on the roster and they don’t even have any fantasy studs.
The Titans aren’t sexy, but they are efficient. All they do is win games, much like they did earlier in the Jeff Fisher era when the Titans were routinely earning a significant profit for their supporters on an annual basis.
In a game where a SU win should equal a pointspread cover, I’m quite comfortable backing the team that is finding ways to win, as opposed to the squad that has lost four different games by less than a touchdown in the last eight weeks.
Take Tennessee.
Free Pick: Titans -2½ (-110)