Standings sometimes lie, and the Texans are statistically better than the Bears despite Chicago being the team fighting for their playoff lives. Lay the short number with the better team at home vs. a tight squad.
By waiting until game day, we have not been able to get the best of the number in this matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans, but note that all that has done is lower our rating in a situation that is too good to pass up.
Over the course of a long football season the ball can take some amazing bounces, and they do not always correct. This game is a good example. Consider the following: Team A is a net of +82 first downs and +1,022 yards better than Team B, and has accomplished that vs. a tougher schedule (#7 vs. #14 on our best set of ratings). They come in with an added day of rest, with Team B having to travel off of a draining overtime game on Monday night.
So what is the line for this mismatch, the home team is 8 or -9? This is hardly the case, as this price does not even seem to be factoring in full home field advantage. That is what the oddsmakers are forced to do based on the standings, as the fact that the Bears take the field still alive for the playoffs.
But in this case the standings are not an accurate measurement of the teams at all, and once again we have a setting in which the need could actually hurt, rather than help, a team. Mediocre squads like the Bears will more often than not play poorly under pressure, rather than play well. And after three straight home games, it is an environment fraught with peril for Lovie Smith’s squad.
The Bear offense has struggled all season to find consistency, netting only 6.08 yards per pass and less than 4.0 per rush. Far too much has had to fall on the shoulders of rookie Matt Forte, and it has taken a toll.
Meanwhile a defense that has relied on the leadership of Mike Brown for so long will be without him this week, and note the issues that brings up for this particular matchup: both Kevin Payne and rookie Craig Steltz, who is forced into his first start, are natural strong safeties, who are better in run support than in defending the pass.
Matt Schaub and a deep corps of receivers can exploit that weakness, and we believe that they have the mentality to attack loosely and aggressively here. And while the special teams have been a major part of the Chicago success this season, key cogs Hunter Hillenmeyer, Marcus Hamilton and Kevin Jones are all expected to miss this one.
To get the better team in a relaxed and confident mode against a tight underdog is an outstanding situation, especially in this price range.
Free Pick: Texans -3 (-110)