Even with Tony Romo back at QB for Dallas in this one, Washington remains the play at home Sunday night. Take the Redskins against the Cowboys in this NFC East battle.
Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys, but the Redskins remain an underrated team. Washington has out-gained their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 4.8 yppl this season and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively (0.1 yppl worse than average without star RB Clinton Portis) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively while playing mostly error free football (just eight turnovers in nine games).
Dallas is 1.5 yppl better than average in six games with Tony Romo at quarterback, so they do have an edge over Washington’s stout defense if Romo plays at his normal level, and the Cowboys’ defense (0.4 yppl better than average) has an edge on Washington’s offense.
Despite Dallas being a better team from the line of scrimmage, the Redskins are favored by my math model by half a point on the basis of an edge in projected turnovers, special teams, and the home field advantage. Washington also applies to a decent 79-31-2 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Redskins are the percentage play in this game.
Predicted Score: Washington-23 Dallas-20
Free Pick: Redskins +1½ (-110)
© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.