Week 14 NFL picks, remember check the thread and comment to be involved. 

 Click the media player directly below to hear his podcast.

 

Season Record:  26-24-5 (-0.85 units)

Last week we split but lost units due to our big play falling for 4 units but there’s a rally in me my boys.  I am sick and tired of mediocrity.  Hell, I’d rather be Geno of Geno’s Picks who is hitting at a spectacularly dreadful 36% because at least I’d have the distinction of making people laugh before they are sure to cry.  No, it’s time for a 4-0 week and if you read on, listen to my podcast, say your prayers and call your mother then this will be your ticket to financial freedom.

 

Saints (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) at Titans (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

Until Chris Johnson started playing like Chris Johnson the Titans were a rather pedestrian ball club.  They were boring to watch and were even harder to handicap because they weren’t all that bad but they weren’t good (or exciting) either and with so many other NFL betting options, it was easy to turn your attention elsewhere. 

But now they have their running game back and it has even opened up opportunities for Matt Hasselbeck to throw the ball without immediately getting drilled.  CJ has run for 193 and 153 yards in his last two games respectively.  Where the hell were those legs in the first ten games?  Well, no matter because they’re here now baby!  And the Saints are middle-of-the-packers when it comes to stopping the run and lousy against the pass.  That may bode well for the Titans in this game as Hasselbeck reminds me of a 40 year old stripper; he may look a little rough but knows how to get the job done. 

The Titans need this game to inch closer to the division leading but ailing Texans.  The Saints are due for a letdown with another road game next week and then a rematch against Atlanta in Week 16.  New Orleans has won and covered their last four while Tennessee is 3-0-1 ATS during that time but the Saints have had the comfort of home cooking the last few weeks. 

Brees had a tough outing when he last met the Titans throwing 4 interceptions back in ’07.  I like the Titans to chew up the ground and keep the Saints off-balance with the pass.  Meanwhile, the Saints will rely on the arm of Mr. Brees but Tennessee only gives up 18 points per game and I can see them getting up for this one and keeping it close.  I’m going to back the Titans +4- (-120 buying a ½) for 2 units.

 

Bears (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) at Broncos (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

If you bet against Tim Tebow I’ll bet you kick puppy dogs and pull kitty tails.  Atheists bet against the Broncos and unless you want to risk eternal damnation, you’ll back the God fearing, Jesus lovin’ Timmy T and you’ll salute the flag while you’re at it. 

Look, Tebow is like a breath mint in the Hall of Halitosis that has become the thuggery and me-first attitude of professional athletes.  He has played some inspired football while his passing appears to be getting crisper and his decision making more poised.  That being said, this is not John Elway who singlehandedly can change the game without the benefit of his spare parts working in harmony.  Von Miller has been the stud the Broncos believed him to be when they selected him with the 2nd overall pick in the draft and is just one example of a team clicking on all cylinders.

The Bears have no quarterback, Matt Forte won’t be carrying the load due to injury and the team is in a free fall.  Sure it’s scary laying north of a field goal with a team like the Broncos but remember, courage is not the absence of fear but the mastery of it.  I am the master of my own domain (Seinfeld reference) and I will not be deterred.  But I’ll buy it down to 3 because I’m really not that courageous.  Play Denver -3 (-130 buying a ½) for 3 units.

 

 

49’ers (10-2 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) at Cardinals (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS)

It’s hard to argue against San Francisco and I paid the price for my blatant disrespect of a team that has been cashing tickets like a veritable ATM.  Yes, I backed the woeful Rams last week getting two touchdowns but all the Niners did was shake my resolve by blanking St. Louis 26-0.  However, now they must take to the highway and play the quietly improving Arizona Cardinals. 

Kevin Kolb is back under center for the Redbirds and delivered an upset victory over the Cowboys last week.  In addition, the Cardinals have now won 4 of their last five, losing only to Frisco (23-7) during that time.  But understand that Cards QB John “Don’t call me Red” Skelton tossed 3 interceptions in that road loss.  Market corrections are an inevitable part of life in the NFL and while all the squares will be lining up to score with San Francisco, we’ll back the home dog in this one and like it.  Cardinals +4 for 4 units.

 

Total 49 Giants/Cowboys

I don’t make a habit of playing totals but must admit, when I find a spot, I bang it like a broken screen door on a windy day.  Though I have been judicious about my totals this season, I’ve been almost perfect and this week I have found another one. 

Big Blue has allowed 87 points over their last two contests (Saints and Packers) but has countered with 59 points of their own in those games.  I realize the Boyz don’t pose as great a threat as New Orleans and Green Bay but we don’t need 70 combined points, we just need 50.  The Cowboys are certainly capable of 20 something points and Eli is playing a fine brand of football.  Don’t worry about the big number here.  It’s there for a reason…to either turn you away from this shootout or entice you to go Under.  Don’t do it.  Play Over 49 for the maximum 5 units.

 

Chime In Boys of SBR

As always, this recap will be a in a sticky thread posted in the NFL Betting Forum and simultaneously posted in Players Talk. I want to hear your thoughts, opinions and comments on my work and NFL picks so post at the bottom of this article or in the thread.