Welcome to my weekly look at all the line movement across
the NFL.
We've seen a lot of movement throughout the week from the opening lines, so let's
take a look at what's going on around the league and what the public and the
sharps are doing to the lines. Info is courtesy of the SBRodds.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
Line opened at: Chiefs -5
Now: Chiefs -4
Really? The Dolphins are still winless? Murphy's Law is
destroying Miami this season. They have been so close to getting wins and it
all seems to fall apart at the wrong time. Last week against the Giants was a
prefect example. 75% of the action has been on the Chiefs because of their
overtime win against San Diego last Monday. Plus, most seem to realize that
Arrowhead is a really tough place to play. But the sportsbooks know that the
Dolphins have a lot of talent and will not go winless all season. The books are
conservative, because Miami literally gets closer every single week.
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Line opened at: Falcons – 8 ½
Now: Falcons -7
Speaking of winless teams, will the Falcon's struggles on
the road take another turn for the worse? Some seem to think so. The Colts did
play the Steelers pretty close in Indy, so who's to say it won't happen again
this week against the Falcons? Over 10% of the money is on the Colts. Can you
imagine the media scrutiny on Atlanta if Indianapolis can pull this one off?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Line opened at: Saints -9
Now: Saints -8 ½
So, if the Rams played the Saints ten times on a neutral
field, how many times would the Rams win? I am willing to bet one is all they
would get. The books probably dropped the line just a bit because of the loss,
but two thirds of the money being laid is still going on the Saints. The only
other reason this one isn't double digits is because Drew Brees threw three
interceptions against the Bucs in week six.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Line opened at: Texans -12
Now: Houston -10 ½
This one has jumped around more than a high school
cheerleader on homecoming. It started high, then it dropped below single digits
and now its back to double digits. As I'm writing this, news is filtering through that Peyton Hillis
re-re-injured his hamstring in practice and who knows what this line will be by
Sunday morning. The trend of double digit favorites being questionable will
always loom and that may be why 30% of bettors are taking the Browns in this
one. Andre Johnson will not play. Keep an eye on this one very carefully. I
expect the cheerleader to keep jumping up and down and up and down and up and
down..................
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Line opened at: Pick em'
Now: Bills -1
Two teams that have more questions then answers; it should
definitely be even steven. The public is nearly dead even on this and are
slightly more on the Bills because they will be at home. Who knows which two
teams will show up and who will forget their game. The San-chise might look
like the best or worst quarterback in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick might throw
four touchdowns, or he could retire and move to NYC to become a stock broker
before the game. If you are on the spread this weekend, don't say I didn't warn
you.
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
Line opened at: 49ers -4 ½
Now: 49ers -3 ½
The public is all over San Francisco. Are you going to be
trendy and try and predict this as the week the
Skins get back on track? The sportsbooks seem to know something the
public doesn't because this one baffles me. If the Redskins cover, this would
mark a big pay day for the books. I can't tell you how many times I've heard,
“well the Rams beat the Saints, right?”
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
Line opened at: Cowboys -14 ½
Now: Cowboys -11 ½
Ah how one big loss on the road makes bettors run like the
wind to take the big road dog. Dallas losing in Philly last week is the lone
reason why this one has dipped so far. The line came out before the Cowboys and
Eagles played. Nearly a third of bettors like the Seahawks to cover, because
this season it seems, Dallas is America's team to hate on, just turn on
Sportscenter any given day.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Line opened at: Titans -3
Now: -2 ½
And I would have gotten away with betting the Titans to
cover, if it wasn't for those pesky kids! Ah those baby Bengals are growing up
so fast! Will we be hearing that all over the forum Sunday night? Most saw the
Bengals as a doormat to start the year and now look at them; right in the thick
of things in their division. I struggled to find some books who had moved this
line. Most have kept it at -3, however, 5Dimes have the Titans as -1 ½
favorites. Apparently the 5Dimes crowd likes the kids this week.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Line opened at: Raiders -8
Now: Raiders -7 ½
It's Carson Palmer time in Oakland. If this game was played
two weeks ago right when Jason Campbell went down and before people realized
what the implications of Tim Tebow under center were, I wonder what this line
would have been. I'm guessing Oakland would only have been three or four point
favorites. The Bronco fans who waste their hard earned money on Tebow boards
might be slapping themselves during this one. Will Palmer or Tebow be saved
first? (no pun intended)
New York Giants at New England Patriots
Line opened at: Patriots -10
Now: Patriots -9
Well is Eli Manning really in the same league as Tom Brady?
Sunday would be another great time to prove it. This is another one that has a
50/50 split in public money. I can only imagine what this line would look like
if the Dolphins had beaten the Giants last week. But, will the rematch to Super
Bowl XLII have a similar result?
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Line opened at: Cardinals -3 ½
Now: Cardinals -1 ½
Two things are making this line move. First, the Rams beat
the Saints. Second, Kevin Kolb and Sam Bradford probably and might not play due
to injuries. Once again the public is split with their money and though this
game features two teams with approximately two wins, the books obviously know
it will be competitive. This is another one that could move a lot more come
Sunday, depending on if both starting quarterbacks start or sit.
Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers
Line opened at: Packers -7
Now: Packers -5 ½
Will the fourth quarter fumble last Monday night awaken
Phillip Rivers and the Chargers against the defending champs? The sportsbooks
seem to think so. The books also seem to think that the Charger's 3-0 home
record still means something. The public is all over the Packers; of course.
Personally, the number of my facebook friends who became Packer fans over night
after last February tripled. Which wagon are you on?
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line opened at: Steelers -3 ½
Now: Steelers -3
Not a whole lot of movement here. Considering every time
these two teams hook up its always within a touchdown, it's not surprising.
Most including me seem to think that their week one match up was a fluke. This
game is going to rival some WWE matches in hate, hype and drama.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
Line opened at: Eagles -7
Now: Eagles -9
Whoa! Apparently one big win and the dream team is back! I
think that's all that needs to be said about this one. Even though the public
is split yet again, the line has jumped up. Does somebody know something I
don't? I'm not ruling out the latter as a possibility, I'm just saying; do you
want to just hand the Eagles the NFC East title now? That's what this line is
telling me.