The lockout is over, free agent market is open and we can to the season.
New England Patriots (2010 ATS 10-5-1)
In no simple terms, the New England Patriots kicked a lot of ass last year. Their
record against the division, at home, and vs. tough opponents was out of this
world. So what do they have for an encore? It always seems like it will be hard
for them to repeat past successes, but they continue to pump out dominance on a
yearly basis.
Their O-line had a great season and the offense ranked near the top on 3rd down
completion %, points from long drives, turnover differential and least amount
of penalties. It's no surprise that these stats have the markings of Tom Brady
and Bill Belichick written all over them.
The two glaring weaknesses that they need to improve on are their pass defense
and getting their defense off the field on 3rd down. New England did take CB
Dowling in the NFL draft this Summer and it’s the 3rd year in a row they've taken a
defensive back in the top two rounds. Clearly they are trying to upgrade this
area of the field. Yet with Mayo on the
rise and free agency around the corner, you can bet they aren't done yet.
To-do list: Find some pass rushers, big-play WR, and answer at RB. Resign
Mankins. Fill needs at LB, OT, G, and DE.
Biggest post-lockout question: It's not whether or not they can fill
their needs, but if they can maintain their current level of excellence.
New York Jets (2010 ATS 9-7)
Last year I agreed with the hype machine and thought the J-E-T-S would overtake
New England, but they got thumped in their final meeting and lost the division.
They did exact revenge and shift the axis of power in the playoffs though.
Yet despite this, it was a very up and down year for the New York Jets. They dominated
the bottom half of the league, but struggled against the tougher opponents. The
run game was stellar, but Sanchez didn't breakout. They were excellent stopping
the run and the pass, but were horrible in the red zone. Special teams and net
yards per drive were great, but they took too many penalties.
It was this up and down nature that plagued the Jets in what was supposed to be
a rise to the top type of season. They
did draft DE Wilkerson in round 1 and Revis should be good to go from the start
in 2011, but questions linger.
To-do list: Improve pass rush from the D-line, make decisions on
Holmes/Edwards/Smith/Cromartie. Fill needs at S, OT, G.
Biggest post-lockout question: Is their inconsistency part of their
identity or is it just part of the growing process?
Miami Dolphins (2010 ATS 8-8)
I didn't expect the Miami Dolphins to go anywhere last year thanks in large
part to their questions at QB. I understand Henne finished 2009 strong, but I
was in no way shape or form a believer. Things might not be much better heading
into 2011 either. Last year they couldn't drive down the field and score points
if their lives depended on it. They were pathetic at home and came up short
against the tough opponents. Special teams was a disaster and they turned the
ball over too much.
On the bright side the pass/rush defense was solid and they were pretty
disciplined for the most part. But
clearly the needs remain on the offensive side of the ball and this is why they
drafted a center (Pouncey) and running back (Thomas) at the top of the draft. Long
should take another step at left tackle, but who is he going to protect? Odrick,
Misi, and Bess are pieces to build around.
To-do list: Urgently find answers at QB. Prepare for a new look at RB. Fill
needs at G, LB, and depth at skill positions.
Biggest post-lockout question: Is Dan Marino still the best option at
quarterback?
Buffalo
Bills (2010 ATS 8-7-1)
Where oh where do we start with the lowly Bills? Should we start with the
positives? How exciting is Spiller? Will Dareus make an instant impact on the
defensive line? Did anyone realize just how good their pass defense was last
season? Can someone please acknowledge how hard these players played despite
living in the dungeons of the NFL?
Unfortunately, that is the best spin-doctoring I can do and they remain NFL betting fade material. In reality, the
Buffalo Bills have glaring holes and weaknesses all over the place. The QB
position is a total unknown. They can't sack anybody or get off the field on
3rd down. They get run down and worn out due to lack of possession and
consistently lose the turnover battle.
Other than that things are peachy in Bills-town. The glass is eternally half
full as long as that glass is filled with moonshine.
To-do list: Improve the #1 priority - the O-line. Resign
Posluszny/Florence. Fill needs at LB, RT, DE, and QB. It wouldn't hurt to
upgrade at TE either.
Biggest post-lockout question: When will they move to Toronto?