As we move into June, NFL bettors typically begin to examine team win totalslooking for value on ‘overs’ or ‘unders.’
As we know, though, this is not a normal year due to the greed of the “poor” NFL owners. The players are
locked out, free-agency is on hold, and we really have no idea how many regular season games we may get which leaves the
NFL betting landscape a little uncertain and
football handicappers scratching their head.
To get a bit of satisfaction and generate some conversation, I’m going to take a look at a few teams that I believe may be overvalued or undervalued when win totals are eventually posted. Please keep in mind that I am going to base my conversation on a 16-game regular season. A reduced season and/or free-agency acquisitions could change a few of these selections.
Carolina PanthersCam Newton is going to generate some excitement in Charlotte, and that may bump the team’s total a bit higher than it should be. The truth is, though, that the lockout is going to stunt the potential growth of all the impact rookies. Even with a full camp, I do not see a lot of wins on the
Carolina Panthers’ schedule. With Steve Smith still uncertain to return, I believe the team willstruggle to win more than three games in 2011. At any total higher than three,I would recommend a play on the ‘under.’
Tampa Bay BuccaneersRaheem Morris did a fantastic job last season, keeping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the playoff race until late in the season. Josh Freeman looks like he could be a long-term answer at quarterback. Tampa Bay, unfortunately, faces a much tougher schedule in 2011. A talented division and games against the rugged NFC North and AFC South await the Bucs. In addition, the secondary may be weakened by the pending legal troubles of Aqib Talib. At any total of 7 ½ or higher, the ‘under’ would be my play.
Detroit LionsA lot of people love the Detroit Lions in 2011 and they should be improved, but it may not translate to a better record. I think, though, that public perception will push the total a bit too high. The league’s sixth-ranked schedule awaits, and I don’t believe the team will live up to expectations. The Lions were 6-10 last season, and I could very easily see them matching that mark again. Any total of 6 ½ or greater will be another ‘under’ play.
Baltimore RavensThis team will have a high total, and I usually avoid playing those. The
Baltimore Ravens, however, face the second-weakest schedule in the NFL next season, matching up with the AFC South and the NFC West. Both tough AFC South games, Houston and Indy, are at home (they’ll be facing the Colts outdoors in chilly December). Only five playoff teams from 2010 are on the slate.The Ravens are my preseason AFC Super Bowl selection, and I think they’ll get 13 or more wins.The total clearly won’t be that high, so I’ll be taking the ‘over’ with Baltimore.
A couple of hunchesDenver’s total is going to be low, particularly with a murderous schedule. I think they’ll be better-than-expected due to the arrival of John Fox. Fox lost some of his “mojo” in Carolina, but he’s a damn good coach, and he’ll change the environment. I think the Broncos will win six.
The “Super Bowl Loser” jinx catches Pittsburgh. They still make the playoffs, but with 10 wins. That will go ‘under’ the total.
Chicago will open 0-3 after losses to Atlanta, New Orleans, and
Green Bay (wow, that’s a rough schedule). Panic sets in on the offense and the team never recovers, finishing under .500. The
Chicago Bears will be an ‘under’ play for me when the
betting odds are released.