After two weeks of hype, Super Bowl XLIV is finally upon us with Sunday's kickoff from Miami set for 6:25 p.m. (ET). After opening as 3½-point favorites and being bet up as high as -6, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts are 4½-point chalk with more support expected to come in on the Saints. About the only mystery, other than the final score, is exactly how The Who's halftime setlist will come off and which ad will win out.
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You heard it here first: The Indianapolis Colts are going to win the Super Bowl.
Okay, maybe you didn’t hear it here first. Steady support has been coming in on the Colts (16-2 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) since the open, moving the betting odds on Indianapolis from as low as -3 to as high as -6. The total has also edged up from 56 to 57.
That spread is very likely to come back down to earth, though. It’s already at -4½ at some sportsbooks as we go to press. Some of the sharps who got in early on the Colts are going for the middle by taking New Orleans, but there will be even more pressure on the line when the Saints money comes marching in.
That’s assuming the money does come in. New Orleans is a very public team, not to mention a feel-good story in the ongoing wake of Hurricane Katrina. But the Colts are also in the national spotlight. Quarterback Peyton Manning (33 TDs, 16 INTs) won his fourth MVP this year, beating out Saints QB Drew Brees (34 TDs, 11 INTs) among others.
Manning and the Colts have had the stronger postseason of the two – the Saints needed some good fortune to get past Minnesota in the NFC title game, which millions of people witnessed on the ol’ telly.
Since I’m in a predicting mood today, I’m going to go ahead and say the money does come in on the Saints – and the 'over,' despite the fact that the total is already higher than it’s ever been for the Super Bowl. There’s going to be a lot of square money out there from bettors who don’t even know that the Saints are 1-6 ATS since Week 12, or that the Colts haven’t dropped the cash in a meaningful contest since Week 9.
The vaunted New Orleans offense has been out-gained in five of the last six games. The 'under' is on a 6-3 run for the Saints. The NFL marketplace might be getting smarter every year, but we’re talking the Super Bowl now. People are going to make some insane bets this week.
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Which brings me to the props market. I touched earlier this week on some strategies and suggested New Orleans could be in a position to go 'over' 25½ points. I’m happy with that assessment, but I also see some conflated totals for the Saints passing game. Look at what we have on the board for Brees:
Total Passing Yards: 300.5
Total Passing Attempts: 33.5
Total Completions: 23.5
Completion Percentage: 68.5 percent
Interceptions: 0.5
Brees gains 8.5 yards per pass attempt, which would be 280.5 yards on 33 throws, so the 'under' makes sense on the passing yards prop even before we take the Colts pass defense into consideration.
For some further market inconsistency, my trusty calculator says that 23 of 33 is 69.7 percent, and 24 of 34 is 70.6 percent, so the 'over' for the completion percentage prop has at least a smidgeon of value. As for Brees going pick-free, that’s a tough buy even at +135. The Colts had interceptions in each of their playoff victories and 12 of their 14 meaningful regular-season games.
Too much is being expected from the New Orleans air attack. More should be expected from the Saints run game, the most efficient in the league according to Football Outsiders and even better now that lead RB Pierre Thomas (5.4 yards per carry, six TDs) is getting a greater share of the workload. The New Orleans offensive line ranks second in run blocking only to the Dolphins, who have a famous penchant for the Wildcat.
With Colts DE Dwight Freeney playing the Super Bowl on a sprained ankle (if at all), there will be some more room to run on the outside; shifty RB Reggie Bush (5.6 yards per carry) should get his touches as well.
So what about my pick that the Colts would win the Super Bowl? I’m talking moneyline, where the AFC champs are on the board at –200. Half of Indy’s regular-season wins were by fewer than five points. That’s good enough for me. Enjoy the game – and The Who.