Everybody loves
Monday Night football. Bettors, bookmakers, fans, sports books and restaurants
all expect an extra boost in business on Monday evenings during the football
season as there’s only one game to watch, often a marquee matchup.
Everyone loves MNF, that is, except the players
That is, it can be
more taxing on players than normal Sunday games. For starters, the travel and
preparation time is terrible with respects to the next game. Coaches and
players have one less day to break down game film of next week’s opponent, to
put in new plays, or for athletes to rest nagging injuries. The extra day of
preparation can be the difference between winning and losing.
It can also be a
great spot to bet against a team coming off of a Monday night game. Since 1994,
teams coming off a Monday night victory that are a road favorite in the next
game are a poor 25-32 against the spread, including a 1-5 run coming into this
season.
This is a classic
case of teams with too little time to prepare, combined with coming off of a
big win on national TV, and all the normal difficulties sports teams have to
put up with going on the road.
Road travel alone is
tough enough. Players have to sleep and practice in unfamiliar locations, and
sometimes even change time zones. This can affect an athlete’s sleeping, eating
and practice habits, and since athletes make their living by having their
bodies in tip-top shape, any change like this can affect that athlete’s
performance.
On top of that, the
team is coming off of a Monday night win. There is so much more exposure on a
Monday night game that it can be very different than playing on Sunday. There
are extra pre-game interviews, the game is broadcast on national TV and most
football fans are watching, as it’s the only game that day. And since most Monday night games feature the
better teams in the league, the game can often have a playoff-atmosphere to it.
Playing the better
teams in the league can be tougher on players physically, as well, as the game
can be more grueling than playing some of the weaker teams in the league. Look
at some of the physical, hard hitting defenses that you will see on Monday
night this season: Bears (twice), Ravens, Steelers, NY Jets, Chargers, NY
Giants, plus some high flying offense that are tough to keep pace with for four
quarters (Patriots, Eagles, Saints, Packers). So, the likelihood of a team
having a letdown on the road the next week is greater after a Monday night game
than other games during the season.
A year ago the Bears
were a home underdog on Monday night but came up with a fierce effort to beat
their rival (and eventual champion) Green Bay Packers, 20-17. It was a terrific all around effort, but they
looked out of gas the next week in a 17-3 loss at the NY Giants.
A few seasons ago
that situation popped up four times, and the favored visiting team ended up
going 1-3 ATS. And note that the visiting team got off to slow starts in all
four games, never having the lead after the first quarter, while trailing
twice. Some offshore sportsbooks offer wagers for each quarter on some games, and
first quarter bets on those four home dogs were 4-0 ATS.
In week 4 of that
year, Green Bay trailed 7-6 at the half at Carolina following a Monday night
win before rallying to win 28-7 and get the cover as a 4-point favorite. The
next three times the scenario presented itself, the home dog got the cover with
one winning straight up.
In week 9, the
Oakland Raiders had an emotional Monday night win over rival Denver, beating
the Broncos 38-28 in a shootout. The next week, Oakland traveled to Seattle and
as a 6-point favorite, the Raiders trailed 13-10 at the half on the way to a
34-27 upset loss. Oakland had no trouble with Seattle earlier in the season,
winning 38-14 at home. But the travel and the big Monday night win seemed to
take a bite out of the team’s preparation and focus.
In week 13, Tampa Bay
turned its season around with a dramatic 24-17 upset win at St. Louis as a
10-point underdog in the NFL odds. The next week, the Bucs went to Cincinnati and as a 5-point
favorite, failed to cover and barely escaped with a 16-13 win in overtime. The
same thing happened to the Rams a few weeks later after an impressive 34-21 win
at New Orleans on Monday night. The next week, St. Louis was a 12½ point
favorite at Carolina (a team they’d already whipped 48-14), and the Rams failed
to cover in a 38-32 win.
So don’t be afraid to
back underdogs when they’re playing a team coming off of a Monday night game.
If the circumstances fall into place, those dogs can bite loud and hard.