Green Bay Packers Odds

Green Bay thought another championship was in their future, but the Giants derailed those plans.  How will Aaron and company stack up this upcoming season against the likes of the defending champs and the 49ers?

 

 

All eyes are on the defensive line as the team heads into camp. Last season the Packers were among the worst in sacks (29 for 2011) and dead last in passing yards allowed per game (299.8). Green Bay understands the importance of focusing on the defensive line to pressure opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions.

B.J. Raji was overused last season and his stats plummeted because of it. Ryan Pickett is exclusively a run stopper and cannot be counted on to pressure the quarterback. Young guns Jarius Wynn and C.J. Wilson will be back and should be improved with another year under their respective belts. However, the Packers are looking towards their 2^nd round pick Jerel Worthy from MSU and 4^th rounder Mike Daniels out of Iowa to dramatically improve a line that could not fire last season. Free agents Anthony Hargrove, Phillip Merling and Daniel Muir will also be in the competitive mix during camp. And, finally, their 1^st round pick in the 2012 draft, Nick Perry is smallish defensive end who will most likely be used at outside linebacker but could put his hand in the dirt from time to time as well. All in all, it looks like Packers fans have a good chance of seeing a new and improved pass rush this season.

 

 

Blind side bodyguard Chad Clifton is no longer protecting Aaron Rodgers' flank, and his departure is being groused about by many who feel the Pack should have given the venerated left tackle one more year. But, football is a business and Green Bay felt the 36-year-old Clifton was no longer suitable to secure the safety of the franchise.

So, who will take his place? Derek Sherrod is looking to unseat Marshall Newhouse as the odds on favorite to become the Packer's new starting left tackle. He's a fast learner but he may fit more seamlessly at guard. The other contenders for the most important position on the offensive line are Andrew Datko and Bryan Bulaga. Datko's biggest knock is that he lacks reach, and we all know long arms are a big weapon at left tackle. 

Bryan Bulaga was originally drafted in the 1^st round of the 2010 draft to grab the mantle held by Clifton. However, his success at right tackle has deterred head coach Mike McCarthy from messing with a good thing. Therefore, Bulaga at left tackle is a long shot at best. Who wins the Aaron Rodgers bodyguard sweepstakes is still anyone's guess.

 

 

All systems are go as the Packers prepare for training camp with an eye towards their opening day date with the San Francisco 49’ers. The two teams did not meet last season but this will be the ultimate test of a high octane offense led by Aaron Rodgers versus the number one run stoppage unit in the league last season, the San Francisco 49’ers. 

While the Packers are counting on Alex Green, who was drafted in the 3^rd round of the 2011 draft, to carry the load, he is coming off of a torn ACL and their other option, James Starks, was hobbled last season with an ankle injury. Thus, their running attack is suspect at this point, but the aerial assault will continue with Rodgers launching bombs across the gridiron. 

However, the Niners are a tough defensive unit. They will be able to move the ball on a Packers’ defense that was dead last against the pass. While many will get carried away with Rodgers air force, some may overlook the 49’ers ability to exploit that weakness. 

We say say Francisco looks like the early play here +6 ½.

 

 

It seems like forever ago that Brett Favre was holding the Packers franchise hostage with his, will he play or will he retire ploy, that hamstrung the franchise and ultimately led to his departure from the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. But Favre was back in the Green Bay discussion when Aaron Rodgers was voted as the number one player in the NFL Network's Top 100 Players poll.

Brett Favre’s favorite NFL player of all time and the guy who has been the inspiration for his illustrious career has always been, well…Brett Favre. He’s always been a gambling, some might say reckless quarterback but he had the god given abilities to back up his swagger. I too was a Favre fan right up until he started with the retirement talk in 2006 and then again in ’07 when he proceeded to hamstring the entire Packer’s organization with indecision, innuendo, and incredible disregard for his teammates, particularly heir apparent Aaron Rodgers, as they toiled through the dog days of summer unsure if Favre would grace Lambeau Field with an encore performance.

Finally on March 4^th, 2008 Favre decided to formally say goodbye by announcing his retirement and thus allowing the Packers fans, management and Aaron Rodgers to move on. But not so fast. By early July of that year, Favre contacted the Packers about a possible return. The Packers had finally enough as even an icon can become as annoying as an overeager water boy. On August 7^th, 2008 Favre was traded, with his blessings, to New York where he would become Brett the Jet.

As if it wasn't bad enough that Favre would choose a Jet uniform over a dignified retirement as a Packer, Favre hemmed and hawed two years later and left New York for a traitorous signing with Green Bay's hated rivals, the Minnesota Vikings. In a Vikings uniform Favre was rejuvenated and took his new love to a date in the NFC Championship against the New Orleans Saints.

Ah, but fate had a different destiny in mind when Favre’s rambling, gambling style came up snake eyes. In the kicker friendly confines of the Superdome and with Favre engineering a game winning drive to propel his new team into the Super Bowl, Favre looked at the clock with 22 seconds left and a time out in his pocket. It was 3^rd and 15 at the Saints 38 and a short pass or even a few yards on the ground would get them within range of a game winning field goal. However, Favre’s penchant for “all in” just about done him in when he threw across the field and had his pass intercepted by Saints cornerback Tracy Porter and the rest is history.  

There was a time when Brett Favre reminded us of the cowboys in the Chevy truck commercials. Like a rock. But with his prima donna posturing and feigned retirements in the twilight of his career, he will forever remind me of a show cowboy with feathers on his spurs rather than the grizzled Marlboro man with a six-shooter in his pocket. At the end of his career he had the salacious “sexting” episode with a lovely young lass who was more creeped out than turned on as Favre went from a gunslingin’ desperado to an aging diva desperately seeking the adulation once routinely rained down upon him from the rafters at Lambeau.

Now that retirement has finally settled in and he has resigned himself to the fact that no longer will teams lavish tens of millions of dollars to a forty something quarterback with a storied, but now tarnished legacy, he can now be a bit more circumspect in his opinion of his successor in Green Bay. He is now able to give Rodgers his due, as he did in an interview with the NFL Network's Deion Sanders, whereas before he appeared to only tolerate his heir apparent. One thing fans in Green Bay know now about Brett Favre, it's always been about him first and everyone else second.

 

 

 

The news on cornerback Tramon Williams is not good. Williams suffered a shoulder injury on opening day last season against the Saints and was held out the following game in Week 2. He played through the pain for the rest of the year but tests conducted earlier this month concluded that the shoulder is still only at fifty percent strength and nerve damage may be an issue. If Williams is unable to heal quickly enough, he will be placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list and that would be a blow to a secondary that was exposed throughout last season. If he does wind up on the PUP list, Williams would be out for the first six games of the season and if his shoulder continues to ail, he may be out even longer.

Former outside linebackers Jamari Lattimore and Brad Jones are being moved to the inside, at least for the time being. Inside linebacker’s coach Winston Moss stated, “They’ve shown a lot of promise,” which could mean the move will be permanent or this is a last ditch attempt to keep them on the Packers’ roster.

 

 

Former University of Hawaii product Alex Green was selected in the 3^rd round of the 2011 draft with deceptive speed for a thickly built runner. After a very limited role, Green was sidelined for the season after Week 7 with a torn ACL. Green is trying to return to form for training camp but whether he can heal that quickly is still an unknown. If not, the Packers will place him on the Physically Unable to Perform list and he will have to continue to rehab through the first six games of the season.

The Packers may be thinking, like many teams, that a firmer adherence to the ground game will make their passing game even more devastating, if that’s possible. James Starks will certainly be counted upon to carry the load but Green Bay would relish the opportunity of employing Green and Brandon Saine as change of pace backs. While the Packers have invited a few walk-on running backs, it was worth noting they did not use any of their draft picks on the position.

 

 

The reigning "Dancing with the Stars" champion Donald Driver has waltzed right back into the lovin' arms of the Green Bay Packers by agreeing to restructure his contract from a reported $5 million this season including base salary and roster bonuses to a more team friendly $2.5 million with half a million guaranteed. The 37-year old Driver is Green Bay's all-time leading receiver and has reportedly been given assurances that his cooperation in restructuring the deal will keep him in a Packers' uniform this season despite a logjam at the wide receiver position. 

The Packers will probably start the season with the veteran Driver, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings and Randall Cobb.  There are plenty of young prospects waiting for a shot to be the number five receiver and maybe even sixth if head coach Mike McCarthy decides to lean heavy on wideouts. 

"The way we play, you could make a legitimate argument for six receivers with the overall roster," McCarthy said. "Special teams will play a big part on which positions are heavier than the others. It always does."

Running back Ryan Grant has rushed for barely 600 yards over the past two injury plagued seasons but he may be given another opportunity to stick with the club. At 29 years old he is still young enough to have enough left in the gas tank assuming he is completely healed, which is a big question mark, but old enough to give a young stable of ball carriers a veteran presence.

 

 

The Packers are coming off a season that saw them post their most victories in franchise history but was nonetheless a disappointment for the 2010 NFL World champions.  They posted 15 wins against only one loss but were stunned by the New York Giants in their divisional playoff game and resolved to strengthen their defense by selecting six defensive players in the draft.

Unlike last year when the lockout prohibited teams from practicing, this season the Packers are already working out as a group before the formal training camp begins.  Aaron Rodgers will have legendary center Jeff Saturday, formerly Peyton Manning’s snapper in Indianapolis, as his man in the middle and appears ready to replicate his heroics from season’s past. 

The NFL’s reigning MVP said, “It’s good to be back with the guys. A lot of energy, a lot of new guys, new faces. It was fun. It’s good to be back in the schedule. It’s nice to be off, but there’s something to be said about structure, and it’s good to be back.” 

 

 

The Packers plucked six defensive players from the college draft but found out they will be without the services of down lineman Mike Neal for four games due to a violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy as well as the recently signed Anthony Hargrove for his role in Bountygate as a member of the New Orleans Saints. Hargrove was signed to a cap-friendly one year contract for a reported $825,000 but will now miss the first eight games. This could very well cost him a spot on the roster as his money is not guaranteed, and the Pack must determine how many of their current crop of defensive linemen can contribute immediately.

Despite these losses, the Packers are counting on first round selection and defensive end Nick Perry to play opposite Clay Mathews while defensive tackle Jerel Worthy should also bolster an anemic defensive front. Defensive back Casey Heyward was a second rounder who will be counted on to upgrade a secondary that was dead last in passing yards allowed. But perhaps the most interesting pick is 7th round quarterback BJ Coleman out of Tennessee-Chattanooga who will come to camp without the elite pedigree of others in this year’s draft class but is rumored to be a true student of the game with a fanatical work ethic. In Green Bay, he will truly be studying at the foot of the master in Aaron Rodgers.

 

 

Eight picks in this year’s draft for the Packers and seven were spent on defensive players. Apparently the Packers brass realized that Rodgers has only one football to throw and their offense needed no assistance in getting the ball in the endzone and lighting up the scoreboard as they have down so prolifically with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.  

Nick Perry of USC is a defensive end who will most likely play outside linebacker for the Pack and hopefully can unleash his abundant talent from his new position.  However, if their 2nd round pick Jerel Worthy of Michigan State is to play his natural position at defensive tackle, alongside BJ Raji at the other tackle, it would appear the Packers will be using a 4-3 defense which may diminish Perry’s effectiveness at outside linebacker.  

Cornerback Casey Heyward, chosen at the end of the second round, was a team captain at Vanderbilt and may not possess the blazing speed of some of his contemporaries but he’s got good instincts and a nose for playing cover corner while ball hawking his way into the starting lineup.  The Packers deepened their options on the defensive line by selecting defensive tackle Mike Daniels out of Iowa and bolstered the secondary with Maine product Jerron McMillian at strong safety.  Quarterback BJ Coleman of Chattanooga was the lone offensive selection and may stick as a 3rd stringer to Aaron Rodgers as their former backup Matt Flynn signed to be the main guy with the Seahawks.

 

 

Disappointing ending

Entering last season, their names indelibly etched on the Lombardi Trophy, looking poised and primed for a repeat, the Packers proceeded to tear through the regular season by posting a 15-1 record.  Rodgers shredded NFL secondaries just as he had the previous year in the Packers championship season; heck, even his backup Matt Flynn threw for 6 touchdowns and 480 yards in the meaningless regular season finale against the Detroit Lions.  Perhaps the most prescient stat, however, was the one that would eventually contribute mightily to their demise.  In that game, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards and 5 touchdowns, which should have been cause for pause.  It was illustrative of a Packers defense that simply could not stop the pass.  The following week, Eli Manning would prove that 330 passing yards and a total of 42 points by the New York Giants would be more than even the defending World Champions could stand.

The Packers were stunned by the Giants as Manning rewarded the New York faithful, bouncing the defending world champs from the playoffs with a 37-20 drubbing. Cheeseheads all across the country were shocked that their beloved Packers didn't even make it to the conference championship game, let alone the Super Bowl.  But what went wrong? 

Well, like so many of the prolific passing squads, the Packers have become a one dimensional offense, and their defense is simply an afterthought.  Outside of the 49ers, all of the upper echelon teams are big on passing but not so much on rushing, and statistically their defenses rank among the worst against both the pass and the run.  The Packers, like the New England Patriots, Saints and Giants, have come to rely so much on their superstar quarterback that it becomes a game of my guy's arm is better than your guy’s.  If the Packers want to secure a spot in the playoffs and make a deep run, they must do what all the others must do - and that's get a whole lot tougher on defense.

Offseason moves

Safety Nick Collins is a vital cog in the Packers secondary, but the talented 28 year old suffered a career threatening neck injury in Week 2 trying to tackle Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers.  His presence was sorely missed against the Giants, who picked apart the Packers with little pressure from the defensive line and thin coverage by the cover corners and safeties.  The Packers are hoping Collins can return, but his status and future are still in doubt.

The Packers did agree on a two year deal with their talented tight end Jermichael Finely.  The Packers are still convinced he can be one of the best in the NFL, but most agree he has yet to fulfill his enormous potential.  Nevertheless, he will have two years and $14 million dollars to prove the Green Bay management right.

Center Scott Wells was allowed to skip town and join the St. Louis Rams, but the Packers brass didn't miss a beat, signing Peyton Manning's longtime snapper, Jeff Saturday.  Saturday will provide a seamless transition to whomever the Packers decide is their long term solution, but for right now, Rodgers is in very capable hands.

The Odds

Although they came up short last season, NFL odds makers are betting the public will stay faithful and bet the Packers to reclaim their world title this upcoming season.  Most offshore books are making Green Bay the odds on favorite with odds of approximately 6-1. 

Not surprisingly, the Packers are also at the top of the class with 12.5 total wins as the over/under.  I don't see this season's edition of the Packers as markedly different from last season’s, a team that went 15-1.  And if they address their shortfalls at outside linebacker, defensive end and secondary even marginally, they should be able to replicate what they did last season.  13-3 should be a relatively easy task for this club, which would allow you to cash a ticket on over the 12.5.  Will they win the Super Bowl at 6-1?  I think I'll wait and see if those odds get a bit more favorable.