The Green Bay Packerslook to repeat last year's run by dominating the NFC Northern Division. By the way the NFL odds are looking, the Chicago Bears might be the only team that can give them any problems.
The NFC North will be dominated by the Green Bay Packers in the
2011-2012 season. At 5Dimes they are listed as the NFL odds second favorite to win
the Super Bowl at +7.25/1 followed by the Chicago Bears at 33/1, then the
Detroit Lions at 45/1, and then Minnesota expected to finish last in the
division listed at 66/1.
The Packers have advantages on both sides of the ball
against all three of their divisional opponents and I believe they can attain a
6-2 record in those divisional clashes.
The Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers will be tested early as they host the New
Orleans Saints in Week 1. The Packers are currently installed as 5 1/2 point betting odds favorites at 5Dimes, and their season opener might set the tone for the rest of their season.
Green Bay has been a stellar second half team sporting a 12-3 ATS record
making 8.7 units per one unit wagered in the second half of the season spanning
the last two seasons. After this game they take to the road to face a weak
Carolina Panthers team.
Week 3 will be possibly a difficult test at Chicago, but I have
that game lined with the Packers as small favorites. Then in Week 4 Denver will
come to town. So, after the first four weeks they could be 4-0 and with a
history of doing well in the second half the Packers could have the division
won by Week 12.
The
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears offense was largely inconsistent throughout the season.
Quarterback Jay Cutler is not the type of player that fits into offensive
coordinator Mike Martz’s overall scheme. His offense is designed on timing
pattern where the quarterback is throwing to an area and not a receiver. Cutler
is far better creating plays off of his defensive reads and then rifling passes to a
target.
However, he did improve a great deal in 2011 and perhaps he will evolve
into a timing type of quarterback. Until then he must prove that he can consistently
execute the offense. Keep in mind that Chicago is just 2-16 ATS losing 15.6 units per one
unit wagered after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games since 1992.
One
other item to track is that head coach has done very well against strong time
of possession type teams. Since being the head coach of the Bears he has
established a 11-3 ATS mark making +7.7 units per one unit wagered when facing
excellent ball control teams attaining 32 or more possession minutes per game.
The
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions continue to make positive strides, and even managed to win six games without
their starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is at 100% coming into the
season and will have several elite receivers to throw to in this season. They also drafted wide receiver Titus Young, who has excellent top-end speed and will become a favorite target for Bradford.
Last
season, defenses could simply focus on WR Calvin Johnson and periodically
double team him in obvious situations. With the presence of Young, defenses will
be forced to respect him leaving Johnson in far more man situations where
Bradford can truly excel.
If it were not for the extremely depleted and weak defensive
secondary the Lions could make a run against the Packers.
Another problem is
that they drafted Auburn’s disruptive defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who led his team in personal fouls last season. The Lions were already the number one team in personal penalties in the NFL and Fairley will not reduce that problem.
Detroit is still two to three years away from contention.
Note that Detroit has been a great bet the week following a high
scoring affair. Lions are 10-2
ATS making 7.8 units per one unit wagered in home games after a road game where
both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.
The Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have a ton of holes entering the 2012 season and this
will be one clearly noted a ‘rebuilding’ type. Yet, this is a team that is
close to being a contender depending on how rookie quarter Christian Ponder
progresses at the NFL level of play.
Running back Adrian Peterson will lead the
NFL in attempts and rushing yards gained this season. The more yards he gains
on the ground the better the passing execution will be in the their West Coast
offensive scheme. Ponder is essentially coming out of a similar pro style
offense at Florida State so his learning curve may be quite fast.
The Vikings defense will be a strength at the start of the
season, but if Ponder has too many three-and-outs and fails to score points the
defensive unit will get worn down, leaving the Vikings in big trouble and will kill their shot to even finish at .500 for the season.
In Week 7 the Vikings will host the Packers and will
more than likely be home dogs. Note that the dog is on a 14-5 ATS run in the
Packers-Vikings series.