The New York Giants began this season 5-0 despite not having a top-flight receiver to replace Plaxico Burress, but now it looks like that hot start was a direct function of an extremely soft schedule. The Giants have now lost four straight games vs. quality opposition, and they face another above-.500 team on Sunday in the Falcons. In other action, can the Colts avoid a letdown at Baltimore after their New England miracle?
It now looks like the New York Giants were nothing but fool’s gold.
I had questions about the Giants heading into the season, centered mainly on New York’s ability to replace former wide receiver Plaxico Burress. The Giants were a contender to defend their Super Bowl title last season, but they went 1-3 (2-2 ATS) down the stretch before losing to Philadelphia in the NFC Divisional Round after Burress accidentally shot himself in the thigh.
The Giants responded by starting this year on a tear, winning five in a row to begin the season. More importantly, New York went 4-0-1 ATS during the streak, returning to its profitable ways prevalent before Burress was kicked off the team. Eli Manning didn’t have a top-flight target at his disposal, but the Giants seemed to have a bevy of options around to buttress an excellent running game.
So what happened to New York, which heads into Sunday’s game against Atlanta having dropped four straight on the scoreboard and against the spread? It’s as simple as the Giants’ cupcake schedule in the early going. New York did beat Dallas 33-31 as three-point underdogs at Cowboys Stadium in Week 2, but the rest of its wins came against Washington, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland.
Once the Giants met up with the likes of New Orleans, Arizona, Philadelphia, and San Diego, the trouble started.
Atlanta at NY Giants (-6½, 46) – 1 PM ET, FOX
The Giants (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) meet another above-.500 team when they clash with the Falcons (5-4, 6-3 ATS) on Sunday afternoon in East Rutherford.
Is it time to fade New York? I’d say probably, but not before you consider the enigma that is the Giants’ defense. Amid New York’s recent skid is the performance of its top-ranked defense, which is allowing 272.3 yards per game. Problem is, the Giants are only 21st in scoring defense (22.7 PPG), so the unit is letting the team – and bettors – down when it counts most.
Typically, these types of disparities even out over the course of a season. So is this the week New York starts to put it together against a decent opponent? With Michael Turner (sprained right ankle) and speedster Jerious Norwood (hip) likely to sit out on Sunday, the Giants are worth a second look against Atlanta.
It doesn’t help the underdogs that they come into the game 26th in the NFL against the run (130.3 YPG), and will meet a New York team that’s seventh in rushing (138.9 YPG). If the Giants get Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw going early, it could be a long day for the Falcons and their backers.
Indianapolis at Baltimore (+1, 44) – 1 PM ET, CBS
The Colts (9-0, 5-3-1 ATS) are forcing oddsmakers’ hands heading into their battle with the Ravens (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday.
Sportsbooks opened Baltimore as one-point chalk earlier this week, but tons of public action on Indianapolis forced an adjustment. With 75 percent of plays on the spread having come in on the Colts through Friday night, Indy was giving up to two points to Baltimore at a few outlets.
The Colts have owned the Ravens recently, including a 31-3 pasting as four-point favorites in Baltimore last season. Peyton Manning went 19-of-28 for 271 yards with three touchdowns in the rout, as Indianapolis held Baltimore to only 58 yards rushing. Overall, the Colts are 5-0 SU and against the number (1-4 O/U) in the last five meetings between the teams.
Indy could be in for a classic letdown spot on Sunday, even if its undefeated record is on the line. The Colts have to be riding high after trimming New England (+1) 35-34 in the Sunday nighter, and could come out flat against the Ravens. Only 2-6-1 ATS in its last eight games against teams with winning records, Indianapolis is 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games since creaming St. Louis 42-6 as 14-point road faves on October 25.
Baltimore has certainly turned it up on defense lately, even if it’s dropped four of its last six games (3-3 ATS). The Ravens (-10.5) held Cleveland to 160 yards offense in their 16-0 road win in the Monday nighter, and have allowed only 24 points in their last three games (2-1, 2-1 ATS).