Indianapolis Colts to lead the AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (2010 ATS 8-7-1)

Another up and down year for the Indianapolis Colts ended in a loud thud as they were bounced at home vs the scrappy Jets. The writing might have been on the wall in week 1 vs HOU when their defense once again proved soft in the critical spots. During the course of the year they couldn't do a lick in the running game on offense or defense.

Their ability to sack the QB was putrid as questions now linger about Mathis/Freeney. Things were just as bad on special teams, too. Yet, the most concerning stat column for IND was their record against tough teams. With Peyton Manning's health now a concern, you have to wonder what to expect from them heading into 2011.

If he's good to go they'll continue to light things up in the air. They were near the top in passing, red zone, 3rd down %, net yards per drive, ball control, and points from long drives. Peyton and company didn't give up a lot of sacks and the team was disciplined like usual.

To ensure their prized possession stays off the turf they picked up two offensive tackles at the top of the NFL draft, but don't expect that kind of focus heading into free agency. This team has a lot of holes and once again they'll try to scotch tape another roster together to supplement the passing game.

To-do list: upgrade their back 7 on defense. Find a way to limit big plays. Fill needs up the middle of the D. Bring Barry Sanders out of retirement to run the ball.

Biggest post-lockout question: Is this the beginning of the end for Peyton's dominance?

Jacksonville Jaguars (2010 ATS 9-7)

I'm pretty certain that we could write the same preview for JAX every season and not much will change. They were decent against the top and bottom teams, but struggled with the middle of the pack. Inconsistency has been the main identity of this squad for quite some time. MJD leads a potent rushing game, they can score in the red zone, and don't take a lot of penalties.

However, problems up and down the roster continue to drive their fair-weather fan base crazy day in and day out. What is going on at QB? What happened to their defense? This team was terrible in the passing game, run/pass ratio, passing/3rd down defense, net yards per drive, and turnover differential. I'm not sure about you, but that is far too many categories to be at the bottom of.

Is Blaine Gabbert the answer to their woes? Not anytime soon it's not. JAX have a nice building block in Knighton, but it doesn't get much more exciting after that. What we do know is they will be priced in the middle of the road like usual, but we'll have to wait another month until we know if there's NFL betting value there or not.

To-do list: find replacement for Sims-Walker. Limit the big play on D. Fill needs at LB, S, DE, RB depth, CB depth, DT depth.

Biggest post-lockout question: Has the clock run out on Jack Del Rio?

Houston Texans (2010 ATS 5-10-1)

HOU was a little bit like the Titanic last year. Everyone wanted to jump aboard the new shiny ship once it took off, but just as many fans jumped off as it crashed and drowned midway through the season. They can hang their hat on a pretty good offense. Foster won the rushing title, they dominated in the red zone, and scored a lot of points from long drives.

But when they took their talents to the road and against tough teams, they balked. It's no surprise that they are very interested in Asomugha because they were atrocious in pass defense. That's not a category you want to toil in if Peyton Manning is in your division. Yet, letting teams drive down the field wasn't the worst issue they had.

Once teams got in the red zone, it was not much more than a cakewalk into the end zone. As a result HOU drafted two defensive ends and a cornerback at the top of the draft. If Reed and Cushing can stabilize the linebacker crew, it might not take too long to save the ship and once again challenge for the division lead.

To-do list: still trying to find a replacement for D Robinson. Find 3-4 DE's. Fill needs at LB depth, S, FB, G/OT depth, WR depth, P.

Biggest post-lockout question: Are they willing to break the bank for Asomugha or is it another case of wishful thinking?

Tennessee Titans (2010 ATS 8-8)

When it comes to the bottom-feeders of the AFC South it's a case of out with the old and in with the new. Jeff Fisher finally moves on and makes room for Mike Munchak. No one is quite sure how this will work out after he coached offensive line for 14 seasons, but what is sure is that he has his work cut out for him.

Once again they sucked within the division and didn't even come close to challenging the top teams. They got completely owned in the air on both offense and defense. They couldn't get stops or sustain drives which meant teams dominated ball control and net yards per drive. And adding insult to injury is their ranking in the discipline department.

Somehow this needs to turn around. But who is the man at QB? Is a good special teams unit something to be proud about? Not when that's one of the only bright spots of your team it's not. Morgan is a shining light on the defensive line, but he won't be getting outstanding coaching from Jim Washburn anymore as he set sail for Philadelphia.

To-do list: find a stop-gap QB for Locker. Make CJ happy. Screw Britt's head on straight. Fill needs at DE and TE depth.

Biggest post-lockout question: Two steps backs before one step forward in Tennessee?