Tom who? Matt Cassel may not be getting much respect from Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter, but the New England signal caller is gaining respect with many others after stepping in for the injured Tom Brady and helping his team to a 2-0 record to open the '08 season. Cassel and the Patriots play host to Porter's Miami squad, with the Fins looking a lot like the dismal 2007 Jets.
What is this, 1992? Yes, the NFC is back on top – for now. Injuries have messed up the fortunes of the top teams in the AFC; the Patriots, Colts and Chargers have all seen their Super Bowl betting odds drop, while the Cowboys (from 6-1 to 18-5 favorites), Giants, Packers and Eagles are all on the rise. Can we reunite Pat Summerall and John Madden while we’re at it?
Miami at New England (-12½)
Sunday, Sep 21, 1:00 p.m. (ET) CBS
Here are two teams that are proving it takes more than a quarterback to win a football game. Matt Cassel was just fine last week in the place of the injured Tom Brady, leading the Patriots to a 19-10 victory over the Jets (and their would-be savior Brett Favre) as 1-point road faves. And the Dolphins are a familiar 0-2 straight up and against the spread even with Chad Pennington (two TD, one INT) in town.
As usual, Pennington’s job is in trouble. Rookie Chad Henne is getting talked up as a potential starter after going 7-for-12 in Week 2 against Arizona. The real problem, though, is Miami’s offensive line. Even with Jake Long, the Dolphins have allowed six QB sacks (all on Pennington) in two games. Ricky Williams (2.5 yards per carry, two fumbles) and Ronnie Brown (2.8 yards per carry) are getting nothing on the ground. It’s the 2007 Jets all over again.
Cleveland at Baltimore (-1)
Sunday, Sep 21, 4:15 p.m. (ET) CBS
The lines for the Browns-Ravens matchup are all over the map at press time. In this matchup, I can buy the Ravens –1 at one book, and I can buy Cleveland +2.5 at another. Looks like a middle opportunity.
Let’s talk briefly about the middle for those of you new to the concept. If I make both the above wagers and the Ravens win by exactly two points, both bets cash in. Results compiled over 20 NFL seasons show 3.74 percent of games ending in that margin of victory. If the Ravens win by exactly one point (a 4.27-percent occurrence), it’s a push at one book and a win at the other. Any other result, and I am guaranteed a split, which means the only money I’m risking is the juice on the losing wager.
Time for some math. Assume you’re betting the standard $110 to win $100. There are two bets involved in this scenario, so you’re really betting $220. The risk is $10, the reward either $100 or $200. So which of the these two is bigger:
(91.99 percent)($10); or
(3.74 percent)($200) + (4.27 percent)($100)?
My Grade 9 calculator says $9.20 is smaller than $11.75. The reward is greater than the risk, if you play these percentages. I think the chances of a close result are even bigger than what we’re using here, since both offenses are iffy right now and the total is just 38½ points.
Dallas at Green Bay (+3)
Sunday, Sep 21, 8:15 p.m. (ET) NBC
The Patriots are 1-0 SU and ATS with Cassel, and the Packers are 2-0 SU and ATS with Aaron Rodgers. This is difficult for the betting public to understand. They’ve been told all summer that Brady and Favre are gods, while their former back-ups are clods. Brady’s deific reputation wasn’t built overnight. Rodgers (117.8 QB rating) is still getting looked at sideways after two solid games, but one more of those against the Cowboys on Sunday night, and they’ll build a statue of him in front of Lambeau Field.
There’s nothing wrong with the Cowboys, and road favorites are 9-3 SU (8-4 ATS) on the season. Otherwise, they have little betting value in this matchup. Dallas is 1-1 ATS after beating Philadelphia 41-37 as a 6½-point home chalk. Donovan McNabb was 25-for-37 for 281 yards passing; the Cowboys did sack him four times, but the Green Bay offensive line is much better at pass protection – the best in the league in 2007 according to efficiency. Green Bay has the tools to take advantage and win this matchup outright at +145.