The Dolphins had a disappointing 2010 season finishing at 7-9 and
in third place in the AFC East. Dolphin fans have renewed hopes of regaining
some respect in the conference, but just how real are those hope?
Last season the Dolphins were outscored by 60 points total and
were puzzling; strong in road games and very weak in home tilts. They posted a
6-2 road record that included wins over Buffalo and Minnesota in the first two
games of the season. Then after getting crushed at home 41-14 by the Patriots
they took to the road and defeated the Green Bay Packers 23-20. Miami was
largely inconsistent from one week to the next and more of the same can be
expected again this season.
Against the spread
The team parity that dominates the NFL often makes it
difficult for any team to get on any sustained ATS run and can present problems in NFL betting. The Dolphins went 8-8
ATS and were 8-8 ‘over/under’ against the posted totals. They had a three game
ATS winning streak in weeks five through seven and then lost three straight ATS
in the final three games of the season. Those were the longest streaks for them
during the season and I strongly believe the Dolphins will produce similar
results in 2011.
With that said a time to play against them in 2011 is when they
are coming off an impressive win and they cover by nine or more points. I have
found in the NFL that a cover by at least nine points underscores the strength
of the win. The Dolphins had three games covering by nine or more points and in
the following games they lost all of them ATS.
A parity based system
Here is a system that can be used for all NFL teams and
exemplifies the parity that dominates the NFL. The system has produced a
remarkable 82-42 record ATS for 66.1% winners since 1983. Play on all teams
where the NFL line is +3 to -3 and is off an extremely close home loss by 3 points
or less after the first month of the season. This system went 5-2 ATS last
season. Of the 129 plays made based on the criteria of this system 44 or 34.1%
of them covered the spread by seven or more points. Miami struggled in home
tilts last year so I am expecting them to fall into this system in 2011.
Game averages
The
Dolphins offense was quite weak due mostly to a poor under sized offensive
line. They ranked 30th averaging just 17.1 points-per-game, 21st with 323.1
total offensive yards per game, 16th with 220.2 passing yards per game, and
21st with 102.7 rushing yards per game.
Their
defense was solid, but they spent far too much time on the field and the wear
of these situations took their toll as the season moved forward. They ranked
14th in the NFL allowing 20.8 PPG, 6th allowing 309.3 YPG, 8th allowing 209.2
PYPG, and 7th allowing 100.1 RYPG on the season.
Something
to look for
The
defense played well considering one of their top draft picks was sidelined
after playing for just one game. Look for defensive end Jared Odrick, the 28th
overall pick in 2010, to have a big season this year. The greatest story for
the Dolphins defense last season was the emergence of nose tackle Paul Soliai,
who was only a disappointing back-up at the start of last season. In 2010 he
posted career numbers across the board and was rewarded with a franchise tag
and a $12.38 million tender in February. The combination of Odrick and Soliai
have the potential to be the foundation for one of the best defensive fronts in
the NFL in 2011.
Win totals
I
expect the Miami ‘wins’ total to be 7 1/2 and I like playing the ‘over’. They
are listed as long shots to win the division and the conference title. I do not
see any opportunity for a play on either of those betting lines as the Dolphins still
need a few more years of re-building before they will be able to contend with
the Patriots and the Jets for the Division crown.