In what figures to be one of the top ratings draws in the long history of Monday Night Football, the unbeaten New Orleans Saints battle the New England Patriots. It’s Brees against Brady. It’s Bill Belechick, the mad scientist, against the offensive guru Sean Payton. Its ESPN’s game of the week, it’s the hottest ticket in town and arguably the best matchup of the year. And dare we say a possible Super Bowl preview?
The atmosphere in the Superdome should be electric for one of the most anticipated games ever played in the Big Easy. New Orleans is perfect through 10 games but they’re still looking for that signature win.
They’ve beaten all comers but a victory over the Patriots, the NFL’s team of the decade, would stamp the Saints as a serious contender, cementing their place among the elite teams in the NFL class of 2009.
The Patriots aren't having their best season, but with Tom Brady behind center they remain one of the most explosive teams in the league. Their coach is a little bit “kooky” and he’s still getting grief for his controversial call two weeks ago against Indy but he’s built a mean machine that has ruled the road this decade. If the Patriots' 7-3 record can be construed as a down season, there are about 25 teams in the NFL that would gladly trade places.
If you’re a fan of high scoring games you won’t be disappointed. The Saints are on pace to score 590 season which would better the current mark of 589, set just two seasons ago by none other than the New England Patriots.
Just look at the offensive Tale of the Tape. In this corner you’ve got the Saints who average 420 yards per game vs. the Patriots 416. Drew Brees and the Saints lead the league with an average of 36.9 points per game while The Pats are third at 29 ppg.
The Saints' depth on offense is second to none in the NFL. Brees has thrown touchdowns to nine different receivers with Marques Colston and Robert Meachem hauling in six apiece. The former Purdue Boilermaker is having another highly productive season throwing for more than 2700 yards. He’s also got 22 touchdown passes while his passer rating of 105.8 is second behind Brett Favre’s 111.7. Brees has been the bee’s knees. The Saints rushing trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush have combined for 14 rushing touchdowns and are averaging 154 yards per game fifth best in the NFL.
With Brady finally hitting his stride after the 2008 knee injury and subsequent surgery, the Patriots offense is back to being one of the most lethal in the league. Brady is fourth in the league in passing yards with 3,049. He’s got 20 touchdown strikes and a QB rating of 110.4 which is sixth in the NFL.
Randy Moss remains one of the best deep threats in the games. He’s got 72 catches for 925 yards, an average of 14.69 yards per reception and eight touchdowns. Wes Welker is the trusty “possession” receiver who is tied with Indiana’s Reggie Wayne for the league lead in catches with 79.
Defensively, the Saints enter Week 12 ranked first in opponents completion percentage (53.2), takeaways (29), defensive touchdowns (7), interceptions (20) and interception returns for TDs (5).
However the Saints have still allowed 229 passing yards per game, which ranks a respectable 15th in the NFL. New Orleans has also struggled in locking down some of the top-tier receivers a category in which Moss and Welker fall into.
When this game started to come into focus a few weeks ago, I had a feeling we’d see a pretty high total for this game and that’s exactly what happened. The total for the game opened at 55 ½ but has been bet up to 56 ½ at most shops.
There are plenty of compelling trends to support an 'over' play tonight beginning with the “Prime Time” factor. When two teams are in the MNF national spotlight, they have lit up the scoreboard with eight of 12 games this flying high above the posted total.
Both teams have been trending to the high side. The Patriots are 14-9 to the 'over' in their last 23 away from home, while the Saints have topped the total a healthy 14 out of their last 18 games at the Superdome. The over is 4-0 in New Orleans last four Monday night games while New England is on a 12-5 streak to the 'over' in their last 17 games when given the dog tag. Another interesting totals trend: The two teams are a combined 28-9-1 to the high side in games played on the artificial turf.
New England is 4-0 in its regular season visits to the Superdome, and 8-3 against the Saints overall including victories in the last three meetings. New Orleans has a 4-5-1 'over/under' record this season while New England is 6-4. Both teams have posted at least 30 points in four of their last five games.
The line opened with the Saints -3 (+110) and while several books have held the line, others are offering New England below that number now. One offshore shop has the game as a pick.
It appears most of the public isn’t buying the Saints perfect start and have chosen to place their bucks on the Patriots (55%). It also appears that an even bigger majority prefers the over (68%) as the play.
There’s one other angle tonight, call it added motivation for the Patriots. New England will also be trying to protect its status as the only 16-0 team in NFL regular season history.
It’s only a regular season contest but I sense it will have the feel of a division championship game or more. ESPN I’m sure is hoping their ratings for the game will at least be equal to or greater than the noise level inside the Superdome.