As bettors head toward the 2011-2012 season (assuming the labor dispute is settled), it is time to examine a few NFL handicapping strategies that have worked for me over the years. This is by no means a comprehensive list of dos and don’ts. It is, rather, a few thoughts from a gambler who lost in the NFL during his first five seasons before developing his own set of rules and becoming a modest winner since 2005.
Rule #1: Identify the “square” plays
Each week in
NFL betting, there tend to be a few
lines released that appear too good to be true. A good team (remember, though, “good” is all about perception) may be favored by only a few points over a
poor team (perception, again). You may notice on the
live lines that a large percentage of bets are coming in on the favorite. Pay attention to
line movement though. If the line is not moving, there is a reason for that. Either “sharp” money is coming in on the unpopular side, or the books are comfortable with their position. I want to be on the opposite side of public money.
Rule #2: Hot teams don’t stay hot
In 1999, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran off six consecutive wins and covers heading into a game at Oakland.
The Raiders had dropped three of four ATS and SU. This
inexperienced bettor could not believe his luck when he saw the Bucs listed as a 1 ½-point ‘dog. I loaded up my entire bankroll on Tampa Bay, which proceeded to lose the game by a score of 45-0.
The public will fall in love with hot teams, inflating spreads to unreasonable levels. When a team is cold, the opposite can happen. Ugly teams are often the best bet in the NFL, particularly when playing a team that the public is backing after a few nice performances. Parity is alive and well in the NFL, and the bad teams are rarely as hopeless as they appear.
Rule #3: Never lay 3 ½ or 7 ½
If you’re reading this, you know that 3 and 7 are often key numbers in any
NFL matchup. Do not allow yourself to be beaten by the hook. Buy the half-point for your piece of mind (and safety of your bankroll).
On the other hand, if you can get the hook with the underdog, give the play some consideration.
Carolina and Philadelphia are currently getting 3 ½ in Week 1, making them plays to watch.
Rule #4: Practice wise money-management
You want your money to last for the season and hopefully make a bit of a profit. Do not bet on a game just because it is on television, do not bet on a game just because you are going to it, and do not bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a given game (I recommend the standard 2-3%). Find games in which you think you have the advantage, and hammer those games. If you feel that you have the advantage in every single game, rethink your strategy. Five games in a given day will put 10% of your bankroll on the line, assuming 2% per wager. In that situation, a 3-2 day gives you a decent profit, but a 0-5 day doesn’t kill your bankroll or your mortgage. A positive day will allow you to increase your wagers, while a negative day decreases your wagers.
Conclusion1. If a line looks too good to be true, skip the game or take the “ugly” side.
2. Be very careful when following public opinion.
3. Watch your 3’s and 7’s.
4. Practice careful money-management.
By following these three rules, you can stay in the game all season and hopefully pull in a few bucks. Best of luck with the NFL in 2011-2012!