NFL Betting: NFC Season Win Totals

NFL season win totals opened back in May and we've already seen some considerable line movement.  Some ships have sailed and aren't coming back (BUF 7, CHI 8.5), but there is still more than enough value to be had.

After updating our offseason power rankings and customizing a new strength of schedule for 2012, here are three season win totals in the NFC that you'll want to consider.

San Francisco 49ers UNDER 10

2012 Offseason: San Francisco immediately went out and addressed their problems in the passing game. Randy Moss and Mario Manningham have been added to open up the offense (though Moss might be nothing more than window dressing). They also took A.J. Jenkins in round 1--with mixed reviews.

Colin Kaepernick has a year of clipboard development under his belt and will continue to push for playing time. Smith seems safe for now, but for how long? Josh Johnson has an interesting link with Harbaugh from college, too. Just sayin.'

They also brought in Brandon Jacobs and Rock Cartwright to beef up the running game. I can't say I'm a fan of the former, but we'll see how it shakes out.

On defense, there is quite a bit of continuity and not much significant change to note.

Looking ahead: Depending on how you see things, one could make a fair argument to either ride or fade San Fran in 2012. Usually a team that struggles in key areas and thrives in the hidden stats doesn't have much go right the following year. At the same time, well-coached teams that take care of the supplemental categories can make it part of their personality going forward (the Bears are a good example of this).

NFL odds makers threw up a generic '10' on the board for their season win total, but no one has taken the bait. What would happen if Kaepernick takes over at some point this year? No one knows, but I'm not sure there would be as much of an adjustment as people might think. 

In 2011, they ranked near the bottom in passing, red zone/third down offense, and points from long drives. I don't think they've improved enough to reach 11 wins. There was a lot of talk about how good their defense was, but their pass defense and defensive line were below average. I don't think they get the same fortune in the turnover differential and special teams categories in 2012. 

St Louis Rams OVER 6

2012 Offseason: There is so much to like about what St. Louis did this offseason, and it starts with the head coach. Jeff Fisher brings instant credibility to a team that desperately needs a rock at the center of the rebuild.

Luring Finnegan from the Titans was a big coup. Grabbing Scott Wells to play center is another solid move. Who knows if Steve Smith will pay off, but he can't be any worse than what they had last year, can he?

In the 2nd round, St Louis drafted Isaiah Pead to serve as a counter-punch for SJ. Who knows how many touches Jackson has left, so targeting that position is essential. They also grabbed a WR in Brian Quick in round 2.

On defense, the Gregg Williams suspension couldn't have come at a worse time. Strangely, there isn't a clear-cut replacement for him. The good news is, that the personnel on the field should be improved, especially with Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins at corner.

They will likely rely a lot on 1st rounder Michael Brockers at DT. There will be growing pains, but fresh blood is always better than fading veterans when a rebuild is in motion. In fact, the D-line could become a strength if they can stay healthy.

Not surprisingly, St Louis might start the year with a rookie kicker. No pressure, kid!

Looking ahead: I'm tempted to copy and paste my outlook for St Louis from 2011 and update the names, but this is a much more in-your-face rebuild this time around.

Their season win total opened at 6, and it remains there at the time of this writing. In a division like this, a quick turnaround isn't out of the question.  With a much softer schedule this year compared to last, across the board health, and rock-solid offseason, I think this is a team that can win 7 games and maybe even challenge for the division.

Philadelphia Eagles OVER 10

2012 Offseason: The good news for Philly is that they are stocked and loaded for another kick at the can, and odds makers have made them division favorites.

They re-signed most of their key guys and parted ways with Parker, J. Jackson, Justice, and Samuel, and S. Smith. From this group Samuel was the biggest loss, but they wanted to get Rogres-Cromartie on the field full-time as a regular corner. Boykin was another steal in round 4 and should challenge for time in the slot.

They acquired DeMeco Ryans for a necessary upgrade at linebacker and will back up what I think will be the best defensive line in the NFL. Fletcher Cox was a huge steal in the draft and will join the likes of Jenkins, Babin, Cole and Patterson. Questions linger at safety where Coleman, Jarrett, and Atogwe will battle for snaps. Nate Allen is also expected to step up.

On offense, you have game-breakers all over the place. The concern is at left tackle with Peters going down with a freak offseason injury. Guys like Peters don't grow on trees and, when your top priority as an organizatio is to keep Vick healthy, that's not the position you want to lose. Grabbing Demestress Bell was a good stop-gap, but it's still a worry.

Looking ahead: Most of the season will not only rely on Vick's health but also his progression. He hasn't really regained his elite level of play going back to late 2010. Can he cut down on the careless mistakes? Fumbles and interceptions could be an issue. They also have to get DeSean Jackson back to his dominating self. Over the last year or so, he has either been hurt or worrying about his money. Now he got paid--will it help or hurt?

The season win total started at 10, and there is trending juice on the over. It would be hard to pass up on that.  It's a well-run franchise with a lot of continuity at all the right places. Last year Vick couldn't afford to get away with mistakes, but this year he can.  The defense is that good.