Green Bay remains the class of the NFC North, but Monday's loss to the Bears as three-point favorites exposed a flaw in the Packers attack that could prove fatal.
nfl spread nfl odds nfl betting odds handicapping pick college
*** Free NFL Picks - Week 5 Rundown *** : 4 free NFL picks from some of the top football handicappers. Check out their free picks below and place your bets.
Just as you shouldn’t take too much from one victory neither should you from one loss, so I won’t say that Monday night’s 20-17 defeat in Chicago is the end of the world for the Green Bay Packers. After all, Aaron Rodgers was terrific and the Pack pretty moved up and down the field on the Bears – it’s pretty clear they are a better team than is Chicago despite the fact the Bears are now the only unbeaten team left in the NFC.
Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com
But this isn’t college football and no team is going to win a championship with nothing from the running game, something that’s going to be a major problem for the Packers no matter how good Rodgers is. Green Bay, without Ryan Grant for the season, rushed for just 63 yards on 15 carries as Rodgers threw the ball 45 times. That will eventually get him killed even if the offensive line is much better than it was at the start of last season (Rodgers still got sacked 50 times in 2009). By comparison, in last season’s Green Bay 21-14 win at Soldier Field it had more yards on the ground (158) than through the air (157).
Monday night saw John Kuhn the surprise starter in part because the Packers want to continue using Brandon Jackson on third downs. But neither runner is much of a threat to break off an explosive run, and that makes the Packers one-dimensional. Kuhn and Jackson combined for 43 yards on 13 carries, and 18 of those yards came from Kuhn on one fourth-quarter run. Green Bay will compensate with a short passing game, and there’s simply no better decision-maker or more accurate passer in the league than Rodgers.
But while he completed 75.6% of his passes on Monday he didn't complete a single pass to a wide receiver longer than 18 yards and no pass at all longer than 28. That put additional pressure on the offensive line because Chicago’s defensive linemen didn’t even have to pretend they had to worry the run.
Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com
So what’s the answer? The Buffalo Bills reportedly have put Marshawn Lynch on the market and Green Bay needs to be on the phone to get the former 1,000-yard rusher.
Meanwhile, two other big problems reared their head for Green Bay on Monday: penalties and terrible special teams play. The Packers, 2-1 against the NFL spread, set a team record with 18 penalties, wiping out a Jermichael Finley touchdown catch as well as two fourth-quarter takeaways. Their special teams gave up two long kick returns, including Devin Hester's 62-yarder for a touchdown (he almost ran a previous one back too), as well as had a field goal blocked and a 22-yard punt return wiped out by an illegal blocking penalty.
Green Bay led the league with 118 penalties and 30 just on special teams last year, so this nothing new. Tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher combined for six penalties as they tried to deal with Julius Peppers. Green Bay had just eight in its first two games this season but 12 different players were flagged Monday. Every offensive lineman but the center had at least one.
The Packers remain the +150 NFL betting favorite at BetUS to reach the NFC Championship Game and +700 co-favorites with the Colts to win Super Bowl XLV. I’m not saying it’s time to jump off the Green Bay bandwagon after one game, but start making arrangements if these problems continue.