NFL Odds: Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans barely missed the playoffs last season but are looking towards 2012 as the year that will push them over the hump and into the postseason.

 

 

Kenny Britt is beginning to be more trouble than he's worth. He's one of those guys who cannot seem to stand his own success. While injuries can happen to the best of them, becoming a bona fide jackass is optional. It looks like Britt has officially triggered that option with his recent arrest for DWI in the early morning hours of July 20^th. 

Britt is only 23-years old and among the most talented at his position when healthy. But his off-field antics are getting criminal...literally. This DWI is his eighth run in with the law since 2009, and he could face a suspension from the NFL based on their personal conduct policy. 

If you're reading this, Kenny, one day you will wake up and those legs won't fire, your back will stiffen and those soft hands that caught all those spirals will feel like clumps of cement. It's called getting old, and it happens in an instant in the NFL. Your act is already getting old in Tennessee, particularly because you are spending more time in the trainer's room than on the field. People are more apt to forgive when you're scoring touchdowns but, right now, you're dropping the ball in more ways than one. Time to grow up.

 

 

The Titans have to be concerned about Kenny Britt. The talented but injury-prone receiver tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in Week 3 of last year and sat on the shelf for the duration. After rehabbing the knee, he had a "clean up" procedure in May. Okay, a common procedure but one that may raise a few eyebrows from Titans' fans, yet the medical community says not to worry.  

But what about this latest arthroscopic surgery on his left knee after mini-camp ended in June? The Titans have to be wondering whether this will be another year of injury woes or will Britt's knees hold up? That is one of the key questions that will need to be answered though training camp may shed some light on Britt's projected contributions. 

Perhaps even more important than Kenny Britt's health is which Chris Johnson will show up for the Titans this season? After holding out during the 2011 offseason and then signing a $53 million extension to get back in a Titans' uniform, Johnson was far from the runner who gained over 2,000 yards on the ground only a few years removed. With a full training camp under his belt, Tennessee fans have to hope Johnson will be back in full swing.

 

 

The Titans are known for a devastating rushing attack as long as Chris Johnson is healthy...and motivated.  Last season Johnson sat out training camp and only showed flashes of the brilliance we've come to expect.  Without Johnson at his best, the Titans are a decidedly different team. Will Chris Johnson return to vintage form? Let's assume he does and that the passing game is as effective this year as it was last, ranked 12^th in the NFL. The Titans may be a surprise team and sneak up on opponents who have not counted on Tennessee being a team to beat.

The Titans host Super Bowl runners-up the New England Patriots to kick off the 2012 season. As good as the Titans may be offensively, getting the injury prone Kenny Britt back in uniform and adding to their receiving corps first round draft pick Kendall Wright, the Patriots are simply better. Even the New England defense looks to be much more prone to wreaking havoc in the backfield with two big time draft picks in Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower. NFL odds makers don't see the Titans matching the Patriots point for point in what could very easily be a shootout in Nashville. 

Play the Patriots -9 ½.

 

 

The Titans may lose games this season, but the coaching staff is determined that it will not be due to fatigue. Rapid fire drills have been integrated into the workouts this offseason and they are designed to build stamina and get the players used to pushing through fatigue in order to stay sharp late in the game.

A total of 77 stations were used and multiple reps at each station were demanded of the players. Titans’ strength and conditioning coach, Steve Watterson, and assistant strength coach Jason Novak have designed the program to up the conditioning of Titan players on both sides of the ball. 

Linebacker Gerald McRath said, “Doing a workout like that is more different than just lifting weights because anybody can pick up a weight, lift it, sit down for two or three minutes, and then go back and do it again. You’re constantly moving; it’s almost like a game. In a game, you never know how many plays you’re going to be on a drive. You’ve got to constantly give 100 percent on each and every play for how many seconds a play lasts. You’ve got to be able to recover quickly and do it again.”

Right now all the players are expected to participate except quarterbacks, special teams’ players and those rehabbing injuries who have a similar though varied routine.

 

 

The Titans made a bold move in the draft that, as it turns out, was even bolder than many had ever imagined.  Tennessee moved up ten spots in the 5^th round in a trade with Miami that sent the Dolphins their 5^th rounder in addition to a 7^th rounder to pluck a defensive end from SMU named Taylor Thompson.  Swapping picks is routine in the NFL draft but moving up to draft a player that was considered the 14^th best at his position sounds like a mild case of overreaction but the Titans obviously saw something in Thompson that they were afraid others drafting before them would see as well and thus the decision was made. 

However, the something they saw was not a raw defensive end with the potential to be a menacing pass rusher but rather a pass catching tight end.  And so it was that the former Mustang defensive lineman is now a part of the Titan offensive scheme.  Thompson played tight end in high school where he was selected on the all-state team in Texas.  SMU head coach June Jones suggested he work on his pass catching abilities and that his step to the next level may in fact be as a tight end. 

The Titans got wind of this and based on reports and a game he played at the Players All-Star Classic, the Titans felt he could bolster the competition at the position.  If his performance at minicamp is any indication, it appears they could very well have found a steal in the 5^th round.

 

 

The big news down in Nashville is that the Titans have signed their 27-year-old safety Michael Griffin to a 5-year, $35 million pact that includes $15 million in guaranteed money. Griffin is a key man to have locked up and though he is not considered among the elite, he is nevertheless one of the very good defensive backs in a league where top corners and safeties are at a premium.

Griffin has not missed a regular season game since he was the Titans' 19^th overall pick in '07. He was named to the Pro Bowl in 2008 and 2010 but his play dipped a bit last season which was probably do more to an anemic Tennessee pass rush than a drop in effectiveness by Griffin.

Evidently the Titans agree because they lavished a substantial contract on a player who may have yet to reach his prime. If recently signed Kamerion Wimbley can return to a fraction of the form that saw him wreak havoc earlier in his career and bolster a pass rush that was virtually nonexistent last year then Griffin can focus on making plays instead of shadowing receivers who have all day to run.

 

 

Hope springs eternal at this time of the year with every team looking at the glass half full. Realistically though, teams like Green Bay, New England and New Orleans may have their glasses overflowing while teams like Tampa Bay, Cleveland or Indianapolis have nary a drop. Yet, the Titans are truly one of those teams that are a matter of opinion, half full or half empty?

Personally, I am a half full guy because there is plenty of room for optimism. First and foremost, Chris Johnson will have a full training camp under his belt and now realizes that pure athleticism only goes so far in a league filled with pure athletes. Preparation, repetitions and live action in practice are vital if success in the NFL is to be had. Factor in a healthy Kenny Britt complemented by 1^st round pick Kendall Wright as another target for either the veteran Matt Hasselbeck or newcomer Jake Locker and a playoff game or two just may be in the Titans' future this season.

 

 

The Titans drafted a new toy for Matt Hasselbeck in the 1^st round (20^th overall) and his name is Kendall Wright. Wright has been opening eyes at the OTA's this year and he is slated to start along with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. But of course he will have competition from Lavelle Hawkins and Damian Williams, who saw increased playing time when Kenny Britt went down with an injury early last season.

It appears as though the starting quarterback position will be an open contest between Matt Hasselbeck and second year man Jake Locker. Locker was the team's 1^st round pick (8^th overall) in 2011 and saw a bit of action last season. This season will be different as the Titans are not going to simply hand the job to the veteran Hasselbeck but will allow Locker to compete. Both QB's have been given equal time working with a variety of receivers and personnel in their most recent workouts.

Chris Johnson had to be last season's biggest bust. After an All-World 2009 season and a very good 2010, Johnson sat out most of last season's training camp, demanding a new contract and plenty of guaranteed money. Well, he got it, $30 million guaranteed on a contract worth north of $50 million. But Johnson stumbled out of the gate, clearly impacted by the lack of a full blown training camp. He showed only flashes of the Chris Johnson from the previous years when he ran by, around and through enemy defenses.

So far this spring Johnson looks like a man on a mission. He has been at the Baptist Sports Park training facility five days a week. Johnson has reportedly added 8-10 pounds to his frame and believes it will help him endure the long season ahead.

 

 

Blame Chris?

All-World running back Chris Johnson sat out training camp last year, signing shortly before the 2012 season commenced. He struggled mightily out of the gate and didn’t have his first 100 yard rushing game until Week 4 and clearly didn’t hit his stride until midway through the season but was pedestrian at best down the stretch. Perhaps the defining moment of his disappointing season came in Week 15 when he carried the ball 15 times for 55 yards, and the Titans dropped a 27-13 decision to the woeful Indianapolis Colts. Had they won that game, the Titans would have earned a trip to the postseason and given their fans a reason to cheer.

Now that Johnson’s wallet is stuffed and he will be participating in training camp this summer, the Titans will no doubt improve upon their ghastly 89.9 rushing yards per game, which placed them 31^st in a league of 32 teams. Nobody anticipated a running game stuck in the mud with a running back just two years removed from rushing for over 2,000 yards. The Titans have to wrestle with the prospect that they may have a disinterested superstar with a fat contract on their hands and/or an offensive line that is unable to create the holes needed for Johnson’s legs to take over and do damage. Regardless, there is virtually no doubt that their rushing game improves in 2012 because there is simply little room for them to get worse.

Who will be pulling trigger?

To put it mildly, Tennessee has a difficult early schedule this coming season. They begin their 2012 campaign against the Super Bowl runners-up, the New England Patriots, in Week 1 and then travel to San Diego to meet the Chargers in Week 2. Week 3 pits them against the resurgent Detroit Lions and then it is off to Houston, where they will get a firsthand look at Arian Foster and the Texans in Week 4. Week 5 has the team getting a bit of a break when they face Minnesota on the road. The following week, however, they host the always physical Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Phew, that’s a brutal schedule. It’s not exactly the baptism by fire conducive to building second-year man Jake Locker’s confidence – if, that is, he is indeed their long-term solution at QB. Thus, it appears that soon-to-be 37 year old veteran Matt Hasselbeck will get the nod to lead the Titans - at least in the early going. 

The Odds

As of this writing, Pinnacle has the odds of Tennessee winning the Super Bowl at about 65-1, and most offshore books have their total wins between 8 and 8 ½. As tough as their early schedule is, the Titans will have the good fortune of playing home and away against their AFC South rivals Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Yet, it should be noted that, except for their road dates in Minnesota and Miami, they don’t have much room for error if they are to have a winning season. Tennessee must win all six of those games if they are to have any chance at cashing for those who believe nine wins is a real possibility and are willing to back that opinion up with their own hard earned cash. 

While every season brings hope that things will be better and the future is bright, I don’t see a team with an aging quarterback and suspect running game as a threat to win nine games and compete in the postseason.