Heading into the final week of NFL 2010 Preseason, teams are looking towards the opening games on the 9th. How does that effect the odds in Buffalo?
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This is another preseason game that has limited anticipation unless you are the parents of a son trying to make the team. The Cincinnati team is certainly one that has a tremendous upside if all facets of the game come together during the regular season. At The Greek the Bengals are lined at 8 1/2 total wins.
The same line is posted at Bookmaker as well, but you can get a +110 payout for playing the 'over'. The Bengals are ahead of schedule and their execution, especially on offense has been solid during the exhibition season. In my opinion, playing the 'over' is a solid bet to make.
The Bengals first unit defense looked dysfunctional in the second game of the exhibition season against Denver allowing two first quarter scores. Despite the poor defensive play, the Bengals did defeat Denver 33-24 installed as 3 1/2 point favorites and the game easily went over the 32 1/2 points total.
In their last game the message to the defense was loud and clear and they responded well allowing nine points to a high powered Eagles offense. They defeated the Eagles 22-9 and were 2 point favorites and the game went 'under' the posted total of 40 points.
At 2-1 and the Bengals offense performing well, the focus will continue to ride on the defensive units and schemes. In the past two games the Bengals passing game has completed 42 passes on 68 attempts for 62% completion rate and gained 457 total passing yards. In the first two games the Bengals defense had allowed 45 completed passes on 83 attempts for a 54% completion rate and 463 passing yards.
The completion rate is solid, but getting burned deep and having numerous blown coverages was the major problem. In this last game against Philadelphia, they clearly focused on the passing game and were not concerned at all with the running game. That is the only reason Philadelphia was able to gain 125 yards rushing on 23 carries.
Buffalo Bills Odds
Buffalo is coming off a scrimmage against a Colts team simply concerned with not getting anyone hurt. The Buffalo offense racked up 367 yards on 55 snaps from scrimmage, but that performance can be expected to be far less against a defensive minded Bengals team. The specific focus this week for the defense will be to stop the Buffalo running game that has gained 290 yards on 52 carries averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
Having back to back games where the defense can squarely focus on pass defense in one and then run defense in the other will have significant benefit for the unit entering the season.
There is a strong system supporting the Bengals that has produced a 44-16 ATS record for 73.3% winners since 1993. Play on road teams after two or more consecutive straight up wins and in week four of the preseason. Over the past three exhibition seasons this system has gone 9-2 ATS for 82% winners. 30% of these plays covered the spread by a minimum of seven points. I think it is quite reasonable to expect the Bengals offense to gain between 350 and 400 total yards in this game.
This puts the Bengals in great position for another ATS win. Bengals are a solid 11-2 ATS when they gain 350 to 400 total yards since 1993. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS when they allow 350 to 400 total yards since 1993. If you like the Bengals, Bookmaker has an attractive price laying the three points at $-1.05 and you can see how this compares to other major sportsbooks at the SBR Odds page.