Quarterbacks Sam Bradford of the St. Louis Rams and Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers starred in the third week of NFL preseason betting action
The NFL’s third week of the preseason is the one most similar to a regular-season game because most starters play at least a half and often into the third quarter because coaches don’t like to play those starters in the preseason finale and risk injury on the eve of the season.
So while the betting lines in Week 3 weren’t quite on par with what they would have been during the season, it was a bit closer. For example, if the Patriots had hosted the Rams in any of the first two preseason weeks, the line still wouldn’t have been too much more than a field goal. But last week the Pats were 8½-point favorites against the Rams in Sam Bradford’s first NFL start for St. Louis.
The former Heisman winner looked good, too, and made winners of Rams backers with Bradford going 15-for-22 for 189 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 36-35 victory last Thursday. He was so good that he has earned the start in the preseason finale this Thursday as well, with most expecting Bradford to be named the opening day starter over A.J. Feeley if he plays well again.
That Rams-Pats game was a nice result for the book because only slightly more than 19 percent of the lean was on St. Louis +8½. Players did fare well on the over 38½ with nearly 61 percent taking that.
There were a few potential Super Bowl matchups in the preseason last week, with Green Bay hosting Indianapolis and New Orleans hosting San Diego. And if preseason results mean anything, the NFC is loaded this year because the Packers won 59-24 and the Saints 36-21.
In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers continues to look like the NFL’s best player in the preseason as he threw for 195 yards in the first half. In three preseason games, he has completed 77.4 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions.
Still, the Colts take the preseason more lightly than any team in the league, as that was their 22nd loss in the past 26 exhibition games. And then they simply flip the switch in the regular season. Green Bay was -4 against Indy and that was the biggest win of the week for the players, with a more than 67 percent lean on the Pack. Players also did well on the Saints -3, with nearly 70 percent of the lean on the Super Bowl champs.
The most one-sided lean to a favorite last week was Jacksonville giving three points to host Tampa Bay in what proved to be the least bet game of Week 3 – the second week in a row a game involving the Bucs drew the least action. Jacksonville did cover in the dull 19-13 win as Tampa Bay’s offense struggled without injured starting QB Josh Freeman. Nearly 81 percent of the action was on Jacksonville.
The book’s biggest win of the week came in the most-bet game in Week 3: Pittsburgh at Denver. Sunday’s lone game was also on national TV and that always helps draw action. Plus it was many fans’ first chance to see Tim Tebow as a pro as he made his home debut after missing Denver’s second preseason game due to injury. Tebow was 5-for-10 for 71 yards with a pick and a touchdown as Denver won 34-17 as a 1½-point dog. Only 38 percent of the action was on the Broncos.
Every NFL game in the final week of the preseason is on Thursday, so each team has a similar amount of time afterward to prepare for Week 1. But because college football also kicks off Thursday night, there are no national TV NFL games and thus no live NFL betting at Bodog. We expect a downtick in total action because bettors know that many starters will barely play if at all and now they have NCAA action to choose from as well.
Bodog has released its full complement of NFL futures props for the upcoming season, including player props on every team, so get those bets down now.