NFL weekly player props are an often untapped source for building up your bankroll, and we have some nice props for Week 3 involving passing yards, sacks and the Chiefs lack of a running game.
It is no secret that NFL game lines are the tightest lines of any North American professional sport, but proposition bets (props) are often overlooked and thus the lines are much softer, and many professional bettors attack there props religiously each week.
Props are gaining some popularity among the general public also, as with the current boom in fantasy football such as the SBR Forum $1K Guaranteed Contest for Week 3, even novice bettors are researching player statistics anyway, and they could use that knowledge to play on props at Bodog, which usually has a nice selection of current odds on player prop and team props alike.
With that in mind, here are our five favorite player props at Bodog specifically for Week 3, as well as a couple of team props over the rest of the season where we think that the odds are favorable.
Player Props
Total Passing Yards – Cam Newton ‘over’ 250½ (-125): We will be the first ones to admit that we projected Newton to be an NFL bust prior to this season, and who knows, he still might be before all is said and done considering that he has four interceptions vs. three touchdowns through two weeks. However, he has certainly been piling up the passing yardage, setting an NFL record by recording over 400 passing yards in each of his first two NFL career games. No, we do not expect that to last much longer, but we see no reason why is should not go over 250 yards this week vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes, Jacksonville is only allowing 215.5 passing yards per game, but they are allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt and Newton figures to throw the ball a lot more vs. the Jaguars than Mark Sanchez did in a 32-3 Jets’ blowout win last week. The Jags have no pass rush either, so Newton should have plenty of time to throw.
Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined ‘over’ 550½ (-125): Brady leads the NFL with his 940 yards, and like Cam Newton, Brady too has gone over 400 yards twice, in fact passing for 517 yards on opening week. He has a chance to go over 400 yards again this week, considering that the Buffalo Bills’ secondary just gave up 323 passing yards to Jason Campbell of the Oakland Raiders. Even if Brady has a more “normal” game and ends up in the 300s in passing yardage, we still like this prop because we also expect Fitzpatrick to have a big game vs. a New England secondary that is surrendering a wretched 381.0 passing yards per game on a horrific 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Yes, the Pats faced Philip Rivers last week but they could not even stop Chad Henne of the Dolphins in Week 1, as he passed for an alarming 416 yards.
Total Times Sacked – Jay Cutler ‘over’ 3½ (-150): The Bears face the Green Bay Packers this week, and remember that the Packers knocked Cutler out of the NFC Championship Game last season. The biggest risk to this prop would be if Cuter gets injured and has to leave the game again before the Packers record their fourth sack, as it seems inevitable that those sacks will come. Chicago is still having offensive line issues, in fact allowing nine sacks in a preseason game this year, and the Bears allowed six sacks vs. the Saints last week despite New Orleans playing without its best defensive end Will Smith. Cutler got hit so much last Sunday that his body language was terrible later in the game, as he constantly threw quickly off of his back foot after dropping back just a couple of steps simply in anticipation of getting hit. Things do not figure to improve this week vs. the ferocious Green Bay front seven, especially with Chicago’s starting right tackle Gabe Carimi now out after dislocating his knee last week.
Total Rushing Yards – Kansas City Chiefs ‘under’ 90½ (+100): The Chiefs lost their best running back last week when Jamaal Charles, who rushed for 1467 yards on a whopping 6.4 yards per rush last year, went down with a torn ACL and is now lost for the season. Yes, Kansas City has some competent backups in Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, but Charles was the man. Besides, Jones seems a step slower this season and he is not getting any younger, while McCluster is still a bit raw at the NFL level. The Chiefs are facing a San Diego Chargers’ defense that feels it has something to prove after allowing 504 yards to the New England Patriots last week. This is the same team that led the NFL in total defense last season though, and only 94 of the yards the Chargers allowed vs. the Patriots came on the ground.
Completion Percentage – Blaine Gabbert ‘under’ 57.5% (-130): Gabbert is making his first NFL start this week, probably a lot sooner than many people expected. Now Gabbert has tremendous potential and he has a cannon arm, but he struggled with his accuracy during preseason, and we just do not see him completing much more than 50 percent of his passes in his first ever start. The Jacksonville fans are very excited that the future of the franchise is starting almost right away, but they also expect him to succeed immediately, and that is added pressure that Gabbert does not need. He actually saw his first NFL action last week, and he did complete five of his six passes, but that came vs. a Jets’ prevent defense that was sitting on a 32-3 lead. Gabbert seemed a step slow during the preseason, perhaps overwhelmed by the pace of the NFL game, and like any rookie, he suffered from the time lost during the NFL lockout this year. He is almost undoubtedly being rushed into this starting role after Luke McCown threw four interceptions and finished with an almost non-existent 1.8 quarterback rating last week, but we have serious doubts about Gabbert being ready just yet.
Team Props
How many Teams that are currently 2-0 will make the Playoffs this season - ‘under’ 4½ (-110): Well, there are currently seven NFL teams that are 2-0. The New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers will make the playoffs without question, while the New York Jets and the Houston Texans are probably safe. We will go out on a limb and say that the Buffalo Bills and the Washington Redskins will not make the playoffs despite their impressive starts, leaving one “swing” team that will probably determine whether or not this prop cashes. That team is what seems to be America’s Sweethearts right now, the Detroit Lions. Yes, the Lions have been impressive, especially after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 48-3 last week. However, this team has not been tested yet, as the Chiefs are horrible and the Lions beat a mediocre at best Tampa Bay Buccaneers team in Week 1. Also, the Lions are not going to win the division over the Packers, so their only hope of making the playoffs is via the wild card. Well, they simply face too much competition there from more experienced teams that have recent playoff experience, so we feel that the young Lions are still a year or two away and will come up short this year in late-season high-pressure games.
Will the Detroit Lions Make the Playoffs - No (+150): The Lions were the favorite NFL pick of many experts as the best playoff darkhorse before the season, but we just gave our reasons in the previous prop as to why we do not think they will make it. However, their 2-0 start has now created nice value on these “No” odds, so we cannot pass this play up on its own merit despite its correlation to the prior prop.