NFL Week 11 Betting Preview from the London Eye

A crazy week 10 reaffirmed the view that absolutely no-one is dominating the NFL this season, with the Giants being thrashed by the Cowboys and the Jets scrambling yet another overtime win. 

The bye weeks are over, so it is back to sixteen games a week for the rest of the season.

Chicago at Miami

The Bears rocked the Vikings at Soldier Field on Sunday, as Jay Cutler and  Brett Favre staged a shootout akin to watching two drunks fighting, each desperately trying not to hit themselves in the face. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are rapidly running out of offense. Chad Pennington's first start in thirteen months lasted two plays. Former starter and Sunday's backup Chad Henne was also knocked out of the game. Left tackle Jake Long also left the game (although presumably not to find out why he has his own name tattooed on his arm, something which has always baffled me) and all three are rumoured to be done for the season. This leaves the Dolphins with Tyler Thigpen as starter, no backup and a weakened O-line. Even Chicago should beat that.

Miami are just favourites for this at 4/5, with Chicago at 21/20 (Bet365)

Baltimore at Carolina

It is hard to see how Carolina can make anything out of this game. Both first choice running backs injured, latest starting quarterback concussed, and an opponent needing a win after a narrow loss in Atlanta last Thursday. Not to mention a defense that has gone from 4^th to 14^th in the NFL in two weeks, giving up close to 900 yards to their opponents in the process.

One thing that the Panthers do seem to be good at is picking up an early field goal. You can get 4/1 on that being the first scoring play of the game at Paddy Power.

Houston at Jets

It is fairly easy to see how this one is going to go. The Jets won their second consecutive overtime game on the back of Matthew Sanchez's newfound understanding with Santonio Holmes (and certainly with no thanks to Nick Folk, who put in the worst game by a kicker since I started remembering such things). The Texans have the worst defense against the pass in the NFL. Would you like to bet on what is going to happen here?

The Jets are odds on at 1/3 with Paddy Power, who have the Texans at 2/1

Buffalo at Cincinnati

The Buffalo revival stops here. The Bengals have begun to look like a team again over the past fortnight. Yes, they managed to turn the ball over twice in 14 seconds of possession on Sunday, but with Terrell Owens one week and  Chad Ochocinco last showed that the egocentric receiver corps is finally coming together. The Bills, meanwhile, managed to scrape past another mediocre side, but lost running back CJ Spiller in the process and still are not showing much sign of learning how to defend.

It is not often this season that the Bengals have been favourites, but Ladbrokes have them at 2/5 and their opponents at 2/1

Oakland at Pittsburgh

The Steelers had another bad day at the office last weekend. The Raiders are somehow coming off a bye week with people talking more about their options at quarterback than they were before the week off. Jason Campbell probably is one game away from being benched again, whilst in Pittsburgh the Roethlisberger revival appears to have ended. Injuries to the Steelers' offensive line have left it seemingly as porous as sandstone and Hines Ward's concussion will not help them (he says he is going to play, but you'd expect the toughest man in the NFL to say that, wouldn't you), either. This could be a victory for the Raiders which they could not have anticipated at the start of the season.

If you fancy the Raiders to win this, they are 3/1 with Bet365.

Cleveland at Jacksonville

The best thing that you can say about both of these sides is that they keep winning when you least expect them to. Jacksonville pulled a last gasp win out of the hat on Sunday, whilst Cleveland have beaten some of the best teams in the NFL this season, despite having to play with a rookie quarterback and a bunch of discards from other teams. Peyton Hillis has been the offensive revelation of the season and it will be interesting to see what game plan the Jags install to counter him. On the other side of the line, Maurice Jones-Drew is gradually returning to his best form and you somehow suspect that this game will be won by whoever does the best job of stopping their opponents starting running back.

This is going to be a tight one, and you can get 7/2 at Bet365 on either side winning by less than 7.

Arizona at Kansas City

Two teams who didn’t just lose at the weekend, but who got absolutely and rather surprisingly thrashed. Denver’s bye week did the Chiefs absolutely no good at all, as the Broncos used them to bounce back to form after two very poor displays in their last two games. The Cardinals, meanwhile, somehow allowed Seattle to score 36 points against them. Everyone knows that the Cardinals’ entire defense is feeble, but allowing the Seahawks to score that many is just criminal. Even though there is still a long way to go in this season, the Cards look like they have decided that it is not their year. Kansas, on the other hand, have rebounded every time they have been knocked down in 2010 and I expect them to do the same here.

Ladbrokes are bucking the market by making the Chiefs 21/20 and the Cards favourites at 4/5.

Washington at Tennessee

In the end, it was not about the Redskins’ offense at all. All the talk about Donovan McNabb being benched for Rex Grossman, then about him being given a new five year contract, was rendered meaningless as their defense and special teams units simply failed to show up for Monday night’s game against the Eagles. Quite where you go when someone has run up 59 points against you I do not know. The Titans have been pretty unspectacular (and at times uninspired) this season, but I can’t see a Redskins win here no matter who they put under center (for the record, and in case you were not paying attention, or in case you don’t like watching late night horror stories, it was McNabb last night).

Paddy Power have the Redskins at one of the longer bets of the weekend, 12/5, with the Titans 1/3.

Detroit at Dallas

On paper, this looks like a game between two not-very-good sides. In practice, it could be one of the weekend’s more interesting contests. Dallas shocked a lot of people – including themselves – by not only beating the Giants, but beating them well and with a very professional performance. Detroit, on the other hand, managed to give Buffalo their first win of the season. The question is whether that will be a sufficient shock to the Lions’ system to inspire them to start turning in the sort of performances that they were giving in the early part of the season – which would, on form, be enough to win this game. On the other hand, just how long can the Jason Garrett effect last in Dallas? Will the huge effort that his side made to win over their new coach continue for another game, or will it be back to the bad old ways? Dallas to shade this, but it will be a lot closer than you might think.

Bet365 offer 6/1 on a Detroit win by 7-12 points, 4-1 on a Dallas win by the same range.

Green Bay at Minnesota

It is that time again – the Brett Favre story of the week. It actually comes in three parts this week – another game against the side that made his name (yawn), another injury that everyone talks about but which won’t stop him playing (yawn yawn) and his statement to Steve Mariucci that he definitely won’t play in 2011 (yawn yawn we’ll believe it when we see it). Favre will, of course, play – it’ll take more than a sore shoulder to keep him out of a game against the Packers. He may even play well (two of his interceptions against Chicago came when the receiver slipped turning for the ball, which suggests bad play calling in the conditions more than inaccuracy). The Packers, coming off a bye week which has given them time to patch up their weary offense, will win, though.

Unsurprisingly, the Vikings are outsiders for this, but if you think they can't be as bad at home as they were in Chicago at the weekend then Bet365 offer them at 6/4 for the win.

Seattle at New Orleans

Sometimes it is hard to remember that the Saints are actually the reigning Superbowl champions, so inconsistent have they been this year. Match that inconsistency against the fact that you are never sure which version of the Seahawks will show up – the one capable of winning by 20 points, or the one capable of losing by the same margin – and this could either be a memorable game, with two teams slugging it out touchdown for touchdown, or a forgettable one littered with mistakes and penalties. New Orleans should win this comfortably, but it is a risk following either side at present.

As something tells me that the Saints are going to walk this, 11/2 on them winning by 19-24 points at Ladbrokes is a good bet. But note also that ToteSport now make Seattle the 7/2 favourites to win the NFC West.

Atlanta at St Louis

The Falcons continued their soft-shoe assault upon the NFL with a win over Baltimore in the opening Thursday night game of the season. They are fast becoming the most consistent team in the league and Matt Ryan seems to enhance his reputation with every game. The Rams lost a close game in overtime in San Francisco, largely because of some shoddy defensive work, but also because they failed to protect Sam Bradford when they most needed to. It is hard to see them being able to beat a team like the Falcons, who seem to have everything going for them at the moment.

Paddy Power follow that theory, with the Falcons at 4/7 and Rams at 7/5

Tampa Bay at San Francisco

The only storyline about this game is which Smith will be under center for the Niners this weekend – Troy, who has led them to two wins out of two, or the fit-again franchise quarterback Alex? The smart money goes for Troy who, despite hardly going anywhere on offense for the larger part of the second half on Sunday, produced the game-winning play when it mattered. What may be significant for them, though, is that they lost starting left tackle Joe Staley with a broken leg in that game, and the more mobile Troy is likely to get the nod for that reason, too. Tampa spent Sunday afternoon strolling to an easy win over the Panthers and will certainly find a much tougher opponent in San Francisco. That said, Josh Freeman has been so good this season that it is impossible to ever write them off completely. Go for a 49ers win if Troy Smith plays, a Bucs one if Alex does.

If Alex Smith plays, therefore, the 5/4 that Paddy Power are offering on the Bucs looks good. Otherwise you get 4/7 on the 49ers.

Indianapolis at New England

If it is Thanksgiving week, it must be time for the annual Brady v Manning matchup. This will be an unusual game, because both teams have been so hobbled by injuries this season that it will feature two teams who have had to throttle back their gameplans in order to make some headway in the league. The Pats certainly showed that they are getting it together with a victory over the Steelers on Sunday night, whilst the Colts will have used their bye week to regroup and try and expand their horizons a bit more than they showed in the weeks before. New England have the slight edge here.

Again, not often that you find the Colts second favourites, but they are currently 33/20 at Bet365.

Giants at Philadelphia

The Giants were, of course, shocked by how badly they played against the Cowboys. Can they bounce back against an Eagles side who were brilliant against the Redskins and who, in Michael Vick, have the leading quarterback in the NFL at the moment, both in terms of accuracy and in terms of his ability to make plays from broken field situations. His offensive line is going to come under the sort of pressure that they have not seen all season, so this latter skill – an ability which people feared he may have lost during his absence from the game – will be vital. For that reason alone, expect the Eagles to win.

The Giants, from being on of the Superbowl favourites a week ago, now find themselves at 31/20 against the Eagles (Bet365)

Denver at San Diego

Well, it finally happened. Tim Tebow threw a touchdown pass. He gets into the game more and more nowadays, usually on short yardage plays, and the Broncos have clearly found a way to get the best from the Heismann winner. They also found a way to get the most from themselves, at long last, surprisingly beating Kansas after two pretty poor performances in the weeks preceding their bye. The Chargers themselves are just coming off a bye week, so don’t expect too much Tebow action as the side which led the NFL in touchdowns going into last weekend seeks to regain the crown. With Vincent Jackson back after his holdout and suspension, and Antonio Gates supposedly fit again, they should have too much firepower for Denver in what is likely to be a high scoring game.

Two high scoring offenses means that the even money points spread is at 51 on Bet365 (no-one else currently offers this sort of bet on this week's games) and it doesn't seem unrealistic to expect more than that to be run up in the offense-friendly warmth of San Diego.