NFLX Week 4 Betting: Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns

All teams will play Thursday night and then have a long week to make final preparations for their Week 1 opponents. Still, there are always winning betting opportunities on any given day. Currently at The Greek the line for this game is posted with preseason odds for Chicago at -3 +105 and Cleveland +3 -125 with a money line of Chicago -145/ Chicago +125. This reflects the NFL bettors consensus leaning toward the Browns in this game, but do you think they are on the right side? Have your say in the SBR Forum.

Chicago has gone 0-3 and as a result may have a little more focus to get a win. There has been great debate concerning the Bears QB Jay Cutler and his knowledge and execution of the offensive scheme. In their loss to Arizona the offense failed to score in the first half missing two field goals. Cutler threw two interceptions after having none in the first two games. He has been sacked 10 times in the first three games.

In my opinion, Cutler has been accustomed to offensive schemes that throw to a receiver. In Martz's scheme the QB is throwing to an area on the field and requires tremendous timing on both the quarterback and the wide receiver. Yet, when executed well it lends itself to a near unstoppable offense. Time will tell, but Cutler is on the verge on having a huge season.

Chicago may be more determined to get a win, but the following exhibition system shows how difficult that may be to obtain. This system has produced a stellar 31-6 ATS mark for 83.8% winners since 1993. Play against road teams after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. Chicago last in Week 1 at San Diego 25-10 installed as 2 1/2 point dogs; lost in Week 2 at home versus Oakland 32-17 installed as three point favorites; and lost in Week 3 14-9 at home versus Arizona and were installed as 3 1/2 point favorites. So, the betting public may be correct in betting Cleveland.

Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns Matchup

There is propensity for this game to play 'under' the posted nfl odds total of 37 1/2 points as the following system illustrates. This system has gone 21-4 'under' for 84% winners since 2000. Play under with any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points turnover prone team committing 2.5 or more turnovers per game.

The Bears game plan will be to run the ball a minimum of 20 times to set-up the play action pass play and to minimize blitzing pressure on Cutler. The Bears can certainly gain between 4 and 4.5 yards per carry given that the Browns defense will be playing more cover-2 to defend Martz's pass heavy offense. Note that Cleveland is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1993.

Cleveland's running back Montario Hardesty will be making his debut in this game. He was penned in as the starting running back for opening day, but a sever bone bruise suffered a week before training camp began has made for uncertainty at the RB position. He has tremendous explosiveness in the hole and is difficult to bring down at the line of scrimmage. In the open field he will be a nightmare for any linebacker to attempt to stop. The Browns have five outstanding running backs in camp so it will be very interesting to see how they decide to arrange them entering this game and Week 1.

Jerome Harrison was unstoppable in the last three weeks of the 2009 season. He co-led the team last year with 34 receptions and is an excellent blitz blocker. Peyton Hills has an excellent resume as he leads the team this exhibition season in rushing yards and has nine solid receptions. Then there is James Dais, who is the fastest of the five and his speciality is making big plays from short ball control pass routes. Chris Jennings brings size and strength and since he was not drafted and there is minimal financial investment in him could be the player that is on the bubble.