“Home-field advantage” is one of the most common terms that
NFL bettors hear on a regular basis. Touts, talking heads, and gamblers
regularly discuss the three-point swing that is granted to home teams in the
NFL.
As we head into the 2011-2012 NFL season and continue our betting guides, let’s use the
2010-2011 season, experience, and a little common sense to actually determine
how to make home-field advantage work when NFL betting.
The NFL oddsmakers
are better than you
In the ATS world, most situations will work out to a
negative expectation for bettors if they are wagered upon in each situation. In
other words, players who take every home team over the course of a season will
lose money in the long-term, if not in that particular season. During the
2010-2011 NFL season home teams were 128-134-5, for a whopping 48.85 percent,
meaning a home team bettor lost considerable money after juice. Away team
bettors did a little better, but still fell well below the 52.27% required to
break even. You cannot use home-field advantage as a reason to wager on every
home team. It may work in a season, but it will lose over time. This is a
losing system.
Home underdogs are
winners, right?
There is a major misconception that a home underdog is
automatically a good wager. In 2010, home ‘dogs were 41-42-4 (49.4%). Do you
notice all of these numbers hovering around the 48-52% range? That’s exactly
why I say the NFL odds makers are better than the public.
So, home-field is worthless?
Home-field advantage is most definitely not worthless in the
NFL, but bettors need to know when to take their shots. Handicapping is the
name of the game, not simply making blind wagers on home teams.
There are two scenarios in which I like to take a strong
look at home underdogs. The first is a divisional game. Assuming the lack of
significant personnel or coaching changes, a home underdog can be a strong play
in this situation due to the familiarity and animosity between the teams. The
Oakland Raiders want to defend the Black Hole against the Kansas City Chiefs,
whether favorites or underdogs.
I also recommend looking at home underdogs coming off a loss
at home during the previous week, especially if the road team won its last
contest. Lines can become inflated in this situation. A team that has not
travelled in a while, motivated to win because of a loss the previous week, and
getting a few more points than it should is a nice combination.
Other factors
I strongly disagree with the assumption that home-field is
worth exactly three points in the NFL. Football bettors have to consider weather, surface,
crowd, and travel when determining the actual value of the advantage. The
advantage for the New Orleans Saints (a dome team) at home against the Atlanta
Falcons (another dome team) is simply not the same as the advantage for the
Pittsburgh Steelers at home against the Indianapolis Colts in December. Watch
for situations where teams are going into a different type of weather
environment. Pay attention to which teams play well (or poorly) on grass and
turf. Know if a team has made three long road trips over four weeks. Read local
reports on the internet regarding ticket sales. A half-empty stadium does not
offer much of a crowd advantage.
Winning with
home-field advantage
A sports’ handicapper must do more than blindly bet on home
teams. The successful gambler will use all information available, not just the
location of the game. Factors such as familiarity, travel, surface, crowd, and
inflated lines must be considered before wagering on any game. We must
understand the home field before we can develop our own home-field advantage as
gamblers.