With the end of the more than four-month NFL lockout
seemingly imminent the league is about to undergo a frenzy of player
movement that has never before been seen in American sports.
Essentially five months of teams re-signing their own
players and adding free agents will be boiled down to about two weeks.
Reportedly teams will have three days after the new CBA is
approved to re-sign their own players, with full free agency to resume a week
after the agreement. Training camps will open about a week after the new deal
and clubs will have to add perhaps 30-40 players because rosters are set to be
upped to 90 for camps. And some teams will have to cut high-priced stars
because they will be over the new 2011 salary cap of $120 million (the Dallas Cowboys
and Pittsburgh Steelers are two clubs, for example). It will be interesting to say the
least.
So before free agency changes the look of all 32 NFL teams,
let’s look at the NFL odds to win Super Bowl XLVI at Bodog because they are certain
to change once the dust settles on all of the upcoming player movement and
potential injuries in training camp.
The reigning Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers opened as
the slight favorites to win another title in February 2012 in Indianapolis, but
the Pack and New England Patriots are now both at 7/1. The Packers have
arguably the top quarterback in the league now in Aaron Rodgers, the reigning
Super Bowl MVP. And they might have the best defensive player as well in
linebacker Clay Matthews. Almost everyone of importance is expected back this
season, and remember that Green Bay lost several key players to season-ending
injuries early last season, guys like running back Ryan Grant and tight end
Jermichael Finley. The Pack should only be better in 2011.
As for the Patriots, it seems almost hard to believe that
they haven’t won the title since Super Bowl XXXIX against the Philadelphia
Eagles in the 2004 season. New England has league MVP Tom Brady and had the
best record in football last year. But the Pats have been one-and-done in the
past two postseasons, losing both at home.
The San Diego Chargers are next at 10/1. Somehow the
Chargers missed the playoffs last year despite leading the NFL in offense and
defense. They were one of only five teams since 1970 to rank first in overall
offense and defense in the same season but the only one to miss the playoffs.
San Diego’s four-year reign as AFC West champion was ended by Kansas City (35/1
to win the Super Bowl this season).
Playoff teams from last season make up the next four
favorites: Pittsburgh (12/1), Atlanta (14/1), the New York Jets (14/1) and
Baltimore Ravens (15/1). Of course the Steelers played in their eighth Super
Bowl last year but lost just their second by falling to the Packers. Jets coach
Rex Ryan already has guaranteed a Super Bowl win this season, but he did that
last year as well.
The non-playoff team with the shortest odds for 2011 is the
Dallas Cowboys at 15/1. The Cowboys were among the 2010 preseason favorites for
the Super Bowl but flopped, going 6-10. It obviously didn’t help that the
Cowboys lost starting QB Tony Romo for the year in the season’s fifth game, but
Dallas was still only 1-3 entering that Oct. 25 matchup with the New York
Giants in which Romo broke his collarbone.
The longest shot in NFL betting by far is the Carolina
Panthers at 60/1. They finished with the worst overall record in the NFL last
season at 2-14. Carolina averaged a scant 12.3 points per game (4.6 ppg worse
than the next lowest) and had easily the NFL’s worst passing game in 2010. That
record did earn the Carolina Panthers the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, which was
Auburn QB and Heisman winner Cam Newton.